Don’t you mean BYU for the worldwide LDS market? They will soon be carrying the water for all those other laggards in that conference. And we know they will be a prime target audience for the beer company sponsors of college football…I can hardly wait for those Clydesdales to make their appearance in downtown Provo.
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These ‘super conferences’ of 16 will soon learn the challenge that the WAC found and that had some regionality to it. A 4 time zone Big 12 and a coast to coast B1G just doesn’t seem like it can last for all sports unless they create sub-conf. Football with 6 away games is doable. Basketball, a 2 team road swing semi-ok. Other sports? Yikes
I just think the PAC will be able to hold on amd mid-2030s there will be another re-alignment. Or by then we’ll have a breakway of another division of football - Division 0, or Division $upermoney
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BYU always talks like they have this huge fanbase but the numbers don’t show that at all. In fact, guess who actually has the bigger following, Utah or BYU?
Keep in mind, nobody is claiming Utah are world beaters when it comes to fans, but the common BYU narrative is that they have this huge base that is everywhere.
This graphic was on TV before the Rose Bowl game and it was talking about how Utah had bought the majority of tickets despite Penn State having the 4th largest fan base in CFB. I added the blue arrow to show where it actually stands… Utah is 45th with 1.09M fans, and BYU shows up at 1.03M fans and 48th.
That’s a veritable tie, really - but the point being BYU isn’t that great of a market - and much of their fanbase is spread across the US in small pockets. If they want Utah viewership they need to pick up Utah. Plus, all BYU fans watch Utah games anyway - if you don’t believe me, go to CougarBoard for the past 3 days - they talk about Utah more than Utah talks about Utah and certainly more than they talk about BYU.
By the way, if you can’t read it at the bottom it says, “Sources: Estimates based on Knight Commission and NCAA data”. TJ Altimore is a Sports Strategy Consultant if you are further wondering his credentials. Again, this particular graph had nothing to do with BYU at all - just some extra info in there - so he/they have no bent against BYU.
LOL
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All I can say is @UM, @ND, @FL, last 2 PAC12 CCG, last 2 Rose Bowls, there were comments from fans and commentators on how well/strong we showed up. 70/30 CCG, 65/35 RB etc. We travel well. Regular road games - any team usually only has a couple thousand, so that’s normal.
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Okay, some other interesting things from that graph is that Oregon and Washington also have bigger fanbases than USC and UCLA respectively - they really drive the boat for whether the PAC survives or not. When it comes to the Big12 WVU, OK St and TTU are their biggest fanbases which are marginally ahead of Utah and BYU.
If we are talking about respective fanbase size of the PAC vs the Big12 as presently constituted minus the exiting schools (meaning without USC/UCLA and UT/OU + BYU, Cinci, etc) the PAC still outpaces the Big12 when it comes to top 50 school fanbases.
Big12 has WVU, Ok St, TTU and BYU in the top 50 with 5.94M
Pac12 has Oregon, Washington, ASU, Cal, Utah, Arizona, CU in the top 50 with 15.12M.
Of course, let’s not forget the long tail - I don’t have more info but let’s say the remaining teams in each respective conference have 0.8M fanbases - that might be generous. That would be ~12.34M for Big12 with 12 teams and ~17.52M for the PAC with 10 teams - it isn’t even close. If we jump up to 12 schools with the addition of SMU and SDSU and they bring 0.5 each… we are 6M ahead in fanbase and likely viewers. There should be no reason the PAC can’t generate a comparable if not better media deal as the Big12.
I know the BYU fans are here to gloat, but I just don’t see the need to panic just yet - and I’m sure that all of the media players and Kliakoff know these facts. So we need to get a product together that keeps OU and Washington happy.
Of course, we all know how people hate actual facts and stats - so…
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One last thing - for my third post on the new UFN…
Utah fans, and BYU fans, don’t get your feelings hurt by some fans who aren’t giddy about the prospect of going to the Big 12. Yes it is a possibility, but really that is akin to the third girl we want to take to the dance. Ideal for Utah was how it was - the Pac12 was on the rise, USC looked poised to claim former glory and we should have had a strong bargaining position with a new media deal. That didn’t work out. The next best thing for us is to keep the PAC intact. It is good for reasons stated above, and because of travel reasons, destinations for fans etc.
The last best option is going to the Big 12. Had we not already been in a P5 conference we’d be way excited about it - as giddy as a BYU fan you might say. But the destination and distance to travel is nowhere near as ideal as PAC schools - and the Big12 lost most of its bluster with the exit of OU/TX - way more devastating than USC/UCLA leaving - other than how the timing has worked out.
So it isn’t really anything against the Big12, it is just that you went from going to the dance with one of the cheerleaders, to going to the dance with that cute/cool girl, to going to the dance with your sister’s marginally cute friend she had to line you up with. Had the previous two things not transpired you’d probably be fine with it and odds are you’ll still have fun, but nobody is excited about it today.
So here is for striking a deal that keeps the PAC intact. But also for the BYU fans who think that Utah is just going to not get picked up somewhere and get relegated to the MWC - yeah, keep dreaming.
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BYU isn’t carrying any water for the Big12. They are bottom tier competition-wise. Big12 members have been in both of the last two CFP’s and won both of the last two national championships in basketball. BYU isn’t sniffing anything close to that in either sport. Their fanbase is helpful, no doubt.
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Their fanbase size is grossly overrated by themselves. See above.
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Let’s just get this into the discussion now…UCLA is bleeding money and needs the B1G fix to stay afloat. Paying to help maintain ancient relics for stadiums costs a lot of money. Add to UCLA’s case they can’t get enough butts in seats to cover the costs of football, and you have an expense problem. Also add the Rose Bowl is miles from the UCLA campus, and it only makes the filling the stadium even harder. USC may not be bleeding money like UCLA, but it takes a lot of glad-handing and creative collaborations to keep the Coliseum usable. Will jumping ship keep them funded? It might not. The truth is neither team draws much attention in LA unless they are winning. Even if they are winning, UCLA is still ignored. Regardless of other factors, playing midnight football on Saturday’s doesn’t help them or the conference.
Utah is solvent. Its facilities are current. Though MBB attendance has sucked, Utah makes money with several of the Olympic sports. The Red Rocks are a huge draw that are getting televised on National networks in prime time now.
Outside of Cal and Wazzu, the other conference schools are not strapped for cash; and media rights agreements only go up in value and payouts, not down. With more platforms looking to buy and schedule games, maybe the days of playing five of our six home games as midnight football per season will end.
Maybe the agreements would have gone up more with USC and UCLA, but that’s water under the bridge now.
There is no reason to go all chicken little here; and as a guy who negotiated the transfer of a cemetery from a private nonprofit to municipal asset. I will sing the Avé Maria and simply not worry about anything. The PAC 12 Conference is not dying anytime soon.
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Given your cemetery reference, I should have saved my “You’re whistling past the graveyard” comment for you!
Now, that’s just mean. Just because they give out free tickets to people at churches across this great nation doesn’t curtail the rights of those fans to say “Go Cougs!” or “Go Zach Wilson!” or have no idea the rules of the game, or their ability to scalp those tickets. We’re still a free country.
Seriously, this a pertinent point. The SLC market has to have some kind of multiplier index.
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It sees to me that the PAC will be stable if the remaining core teams stay. So what are the reasons to stay?
- CFB playoff access. This has been a problem but the problem is now fixed and one could argue that the PAC is now the easiest pathway to the playoff for the top PAC teams. How likely would Utah or Oregon be to win the SEC for example- I would say not likely at all. Would Oregon rather be in the BIG 10? I think that would depend on whether the PAC is viable. Oregon’s chance of being in the playoff would be a lot lower in the B10.
- Tradition and regional appropriateness. These are certainly worth something. How much will people from Washington, Oregon, California, and Arizona want to travel to Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas? Probably not that much. Watch on TV- sure. Spend the weekend there? seems doubtful to me.
What are the reasons to leave the PAC?
- $. This is it. The only reason is cash. How much would it take to get a program to jump? I don’t know but suppose it comes down to how much the program needs the money. Would it be worth 5 million/year to leave? I would not think so but it is not my money.
- Greater prestige. PAC teams are used to being snobby about their conference and feeling like they are in the most prestigious company. That has taken a huge hit. The BIG10 is the only move that improves prestige.
Since the B10 comes with a big improvement in cash flow, stability, and now an improvement in prestige, probably any PAC team would go if the Big10 called. I think this would come at the cost of lower chance of playoff appearance. For my part I hope the PAC gets a marketing deal good enough to be viable and becomes stable again.
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If you mean good brands, yes, indeed, they aren’t. Which is why you take the actual good brands from the Big12 and let them wallow with the bad brands.
You are still wrong that actual quality of football on the field is what matters. No, the quality of the brand is what matters in building conferences and getting big TV contracts, period.
This is a contractual thing, and all contracts can be renegotiated, changed, amended, and modified to fit new scenarios.
It is incorrect to say none of the teams are available.
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Weird because the SEC is making bank with brands in ■■■■ markets in low income states. Meanwhile the amount of money in the Pac 12 markets and nooooobody has the Pac 12 network.
Guess those 13 titles in 17 years means quality of football>quality of markets.
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This is such an important point. Even though it’s a better football conference than the B12, I like our chances better for the new system in the P12. Qualifying for the new tournament is everything.
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5 Power conferences doesn’t work for Playoff brackets. 4 Power conferences of 16 teams each works much better. Big 12 has effective leadership, they are adding and building. Pac-12 is stuck in planning, analysis-paralysis without a meaningful network contract. Pac 12’s days are numbered.
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Yeah, it’s perhaps PAC10 after next season unless tye invite rumors are true.
There will be a western conference. Geographically, D1 schools are just further apart out here.
We can’t be myopic about only considering football. Frankly, PAC##, MWC, Big West all male a ton of sense, just maybe not in football.
It actually makes the most sense to have separate areangements for football with all the revenue. Basketball, gymnastics (generally the only other sports that could be net positive) all male much more sense with general geographic ties. No need to pull alignment for all other sports into the football paradigm other then convenience of management/scheduling.
It also could mean there’s nothing else to do in Hooterville.
FTFO!
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You can always go catch the picture show in Pixley.
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