Do you need a butler?
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Information. The guy seems like a straight shooter.
Thereâs reason for optimism that we will get through this.
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Thanks for posting
I go to the store to pick up vegetables and rolls for dinner and get to see idiots fighting over bottled water. Found out some of them refuse to drink tap water because they donât like the taste - for the record a taste that no longer exists due to the RO facility that is processing our water now before sending it out to the taps. Other because of a fear of contamination - like we are living in the third world.
As a guy who served as an airborne paratrooper, who has worked in public administration of local government for over 15 years, who has seen all kinds of messed up â â â â over those years, this is taking the cake.
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People responding to ignorance with ignorance.
We will find out who among us are the better angels.
Grace
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For those looking for something to read during all the extra at-home time we have now.
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Donât Panic: The comprehensive Ars Technica guide to the coronavirus [Updated 3/14].
This resource updates at 3:00 pm EDT each day.
How does COVID-19 compare with seasonal flu in terms of symptoms and deaths?
Most cases of COVID-19 are mild and may feel similar to the seasonal flu before a person recovers.
Though the case fatality rate is not yet clear for COVID-19 (as noted above), it so far appears to be significantly higher than the CFRs seen from seasonal flu in the US.
Overall CFRs for COVID-19 have hovered around 2 percent to 3 percent during the outbreak. As reported by Kaiser Health News, Christopher Mores, a global health professor at George Washington University, calculated the average 10-year mortality rate for flu in the US at 0.1 percent, based on CDC data. Many experts use this figure, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health.
Likewise, WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros noted in a recent statement that âseasonal flu generally kills far fewer than one percent of those infected.â
Still, a lower CFR doesnât mean a low death toll. So far this flu season, the CDC estimates that up to 45 million Americans have been infected, hospitalizing up to 560,000 and killing 46,000.
Who is most at risk of getting critically ill and dying?
Your risk of becoming severely ill and dying increases with age and underlying health conditions.
In the group of 44,672 cases discussed above, the highest fatality rates were among those aged 60 and above. People aged 60 to 69 had a fatality rate of 3.6 percent. The 70 to 79 age group had a fatality rate of about 8 percent, and those 80 or older had a fatality rate of nearly 15 percent.
Additionally, the researchers had information about other health conditions for 20,812 of the 44,672 patients. Of those with additional medical information available, 15,536 said they had no underlying health conditions. The fatality rate among that group was 0.9 percent.
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Release from the Utah Attorney Generalâs office:
Unfortunately, Utahns are reporting price gouging (or increasing prices much higher than reasonable or fair) on supplies that are in limited supply in stores.
The items include: toilet paper, water, hand sanitizer, certain household cleaners, and even cold medicine and baby formula.
THIS IS AGAINST STATE LAW (Utah Code 13-41-101-202, Price Controls Under Emergencies Act). The penalty for this offense is $1,000 fine per incidence.
If you notice this activity happening, please contact the Utah Division of Consumer Protection.
Phone:
(801) 530-6601
Toll-Free in Utah:
(800) 721-7233
Email:
consumerprotection@utah.gov
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Curfews and mandatory shutdowns starting to spread. Boston, Puerto Rico, Hoboken, Illinois, Ohio to varying degrees.
Informative article with simulations about the effects of social distancing.
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A COVID-19 coronavirus update from concerned physicians.
Howard J. Luks, MD, Joel Topf, MD, Ethan J. Weiss, MD, Wendy Sue Swanson, MD, Bryan Vartabedian, MD, Carrie Diulus, MD, Nancy Yen Shipley, MD, and Dr. Eric Levi | Conditions | March 14, 2020
Includes a 13:18 minute podcast.
âEverything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate.â
â Michael Leavitt
Exponential spread
Exponential math is very hard to grasp. Every person with the COVID-19 virus infects approximately two people. Some less, some more. The infection rate doubles every six days. That means that if 50,000 people have the virus today, then in 6 days, 100,000 people will have it. In another 12 days itâs 400,000 and less than two weeks later itâs over a million people. We have 330 million people in the US. The experts expect that 40-70% of people will be infected. Exponential growth does not take that long to get to those scary high numbers. Every six days, we delay the number of infections double. This YouTube video does a great job of explaining this.
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The other day I modeled the US potential infection rate. The range I used then matched those estimated then by several sources. Now I have used 30% to 60%, which is lower than now expected for the US (40%-70%).
I have updated my US CorVid19 infection rate model using new mortality estimates by age-group. The numbers Iâve employed are based off of the CDC chart for China data shown, also featured in the Concerned Doctors link above. Since my Census demographic groups are not the same as those used in the CDC chart of China data, I elected to estimate a lower number per age group, assuming we have better medical care in the US. Most of my modeled estimates are 50% lower (or even lower) than the experience in China. However, the numbers take into account what is shown in the above CDC chart.
I want to believe this rough âback of the envelopeâ estimate to be a worse case scenario. The table below of model results is just for illustration. I am not a doctor or medical scientist. All I did was use data from doctors and epidemiologists to create my own spreadsheet. I do not recommend that this table be circulated.
So youâre saying this could be a government conspiracy to fix the social security shortfall problem.
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This pandemic is causing problems for everyone!
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"The United States also had an early warning of the new virusâbut it, too, suppressed that information. In late January, just as instances of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, began to appear in the United States, an infectious-disease specialist in Seattle, Helen Y. Chu, realized that she had a way to monitor its presence. She had been collecting nasal swabs from people in and around Seattle as part of a flu study, and proposed checking them for the new virus. State and federal officials rejected that idea, citing privacy concerns and throwing up bureaucratic obstacles related to lab licenses.
Finally, at the end of February, Chu could stand the intransigence no longer. Her lab performed some tests and found the coronavirus in a local teenager who had not traveled overseas. That meant the disease was already spreading in the Seattle region among people who had never been abroad. If Chu had found this information a month earlier, lives might have been saved and the spread of the disease might have slowedâbut even after the urgency of her work became evident, her lab was told to stop testing."
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Youâre just a self-hating American.