I just looked at how Tad Boyle ended up at CU. What a strange pathway for the conference’s most successful long term coach:
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Probably 20 years ago this point was an observation by a friend of mine on why CEO’s made increasingly higher pay. He reasoned that it was because in reality less than 5% of those in the job had the genius to be that person. To be that home run hit out of the park with bases loaded late in the 9th. But folks doing the hiring chase that with a vengeance, believing they have found that diamond mine.
I believe K3 will encourage every player not already in the transfer portal to stay and to be part of the rebuilding of the program. If anything, their success under a new coach is vindication for him that he was onto something good.
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I personally believe the second half breakdown against Kentucky in the national championship game was the beginning of Utah’s decline. That loss deeply affected Majerus, and he was never the same.
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Your friend’s observation is understandable. That said, as someone who’s worked for a few very prestigious firms and have had bosses whose net worth was in the billions, I have a different perspective – at least here in the US. There are too many re-treads who are great at self-promoting and networking, but have just above-average capability. Also, again, here in the US, it’s the result of our unfettered, unreasonable capitalistic system. I have had to clean up too many messes by these highly paid CEOs. When a comp committee is filled by buddies, then comp level goes up.
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Yes. There are some jobs that, if you get the job, you are set for life, even if you are terrible. CEO, University president, NFL head coach (head coach anywhere, really). You just bounce around from job to job until you retire. CEO is one that cracks me up. What is really required? I’m sure that most of us could do the job just fine with a 1-semester training course.
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Hey, maybe it’s Musselman. He makes $2.5m but that will surely get jacked up after the season. His buyout is $5m if hired before May 1st, but only $1.5m if hired on or after May 1st.
Whadya think? Doable to match and persuade (Northwest Arkansas is great so not a gimme)?
jk we ain’t getting him.
You can make that call! He’s from Ohio, but he spent time in Nevada, California, and Arizona before going to Arkansas. Maybe geography matters to him.
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Oh good. I needed another reminder why I am rooting for the Zags destruction. I’m always happy to see them get bounced.
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Okay, I asked for the data, and then I went and got it. Advantages of working from home. I compiled a list of P6 hires since 2010.
Here are the coaches who were promoted from within (two of them are still coaching):
2016 Wisconsin, Greg Gard
2017 Louisville, David Padgett
2017 Cal, Wyking Jones
2018 Xavier, Travis Steele
The coaches who were assistants elsewhere (this just seems to bomb most of the time):
2012 Miss State: Rick Ray (Clemson)
2012 Va Tech: James Jonson (Clemson)
2013 Northwestern: Chris Collins (Duke)
2014 Marquette, Wojo, (Duke)
2017 UW, Hopkins, (Syracuse)
2018 Pitt, Capel, (Duke)
The unusual hires (none of these really worked out):
2010 St Johns, Steve Lavin (many years after being fired by UCLA)
2011 NCState, Mark Gottfired (2 years after retiring at Alabama)
2011 Texas Tech, Billie Gillispie (2 years after being fired by Kentucky)
2014 Wazzu, Ernie Kent (out of retirement)
2015 Auburn, Bruce Pearl, (off of show clause)
2015 Miss St, Ben Howland, (2 years after being fired by UCLA)
2018 UGA, Tom Cream, (a year after being fired)
These guys were poached by other P6 teams (this has worked out for some):
2010 Creighton, Greg McDermott (from Iowa State)
2011 Maryland: Mark Turgeon (from Texas A&M)
2011 Missouri: Frank Haith (from Miami)
2012 South Carolina: Frank Martin (from Kansas State)
2012 TCU: Trent Johnson (from LSU)
2014 Cal, Counzo Martin (from Tennessee)
2014 Va tech, Buzz Williams (from Marquette)
2016 Pitt, Kevin Stallings (from Vandy)
2016 TCU, Jaimie Dixon (from Pitt)
2017 Illinois, Brad Underwood (Okie State)
2017 Missou, Cuonzo Martin (from Cal)
2018 Louisville, Chris Mack (from Xavier)
2019 Texas A&M, Buzz Williams (from Va Tech)
These coaches were hired after being fired by their P6 (not a high success rate):
2011 Arkansas: Mike Anderson (fired by Missouri)
2012 Kansas St: Bruce Weber (fired by Illinois)
2013 TTech: Tubby Smith (fired by Minnesota)
2015 Tennessee, Rick Barnes (fired by Texas)
2019 St Johns, Mike Anderson (fired by Arkansas)
2019 Cal, Mark Fox, (fired by Georgia)
Hired out of the NBA (I’m embarrassed that I didn’t know about Stackhouse…success rate here is mixed):
2010 Iowa St, Fred Hoiberg
2011 Utah: Larry K
2013: Rutgers: Eddie Jordan
2015: St Johns, Chris Mullin
2015: Alabama, Avery Johnson
2017: Georgetown, Pat Ewing
2019: Michigan, Juwan Howard
2019: Nebraska, Fred Hoiberg
2019: Vandy, Jerry Stackhouse
And, finally, the big one. These guys made the jump from mid major to a P6:
2010:
Auburn: Tony Barbee, UTEP
BC: Steve Donahue, Cornell
Clemson: Brad Brownell, Wright St
Colorado: Tad Boyle, Northern Colorado
Iowa, Fran McCaffery, Iona
Oregon, Dana Altman, Creighton
Rutgers: Mike Rice, Robert Morris
Wake Forest: Jeff Bzdelik, Colorado
2011:
GT: Brian Gregory (Dayton)
Miami: Jim larranaga (George Mason)
Oklahoma: Lon Kruger (UNLV)
Penn State: Pat Chambers, BU
Providence: Ed Colley (Fairfield)
Tennessee: Counzo Martin (Missouri St)
Texas A&M: Billy Kennedy (Murray St)
2012:
Illinois: John Groce (Ohio)
LSU: Johnny Jones (North Texas)
Nebraska: Tim Miles (CSU)
2013:
Minnesota: Richard Pitino (FIU)
UCLA: Steve Alford (New Mexico)
USC: Andy Enfield FGCU
2014:
Oregon State: Wayne Tinkle, Montana
Missouri: Kim Anderson, Central Missouri
Tennessee: Donnie Tyndall, Southern Miss
Wake, Danny Manning, Tulsa
BC, Jim Christian Ohio
2015:
ISU, Steve Prohm, Murray State
Florida, Michael White, Louisiana Tech
Texas, Shaka Smart, VCU
ASU, Hurley, Buffalo
2016:
GT, Pastner, Memphis
Okie State, Brad Underwood, SFA
Rutgers, Steve Pikiell, Stoney Brook
Stanford, Jerod Haase, UAB
TTech, Chris Beard, Little Rock
Vandy, Bryce Drew, Valpo
2017:
NCState, Kevin Keatts, UNCW
Okie State, Mike Boynton, SFA
Butler, Lavall Jordan, Milwaukee
Indiana, Archie Miller, Dayton
OSU, Chris Holtman, Butler
LSU, Will Wade, VCU
2018:
Ole Miss, Kermit Davis, MTSU
2019:
VaTech, Mike Young, Wofford
UCLA, Cronin, Cincy
Wazzu, Kyle Smith, San Fran
Alabama, Nate Oats, Buffalo
Arkansas, Musselman, Nevada
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It seems like mid to p6 is the way to go.
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The bottom line: none of these approaches are very successful. There really isn’t enough data for most of these types of hires. Grabbing an assistant at a P6 has a bad recent track record, but we’re talking about just a handful of cases.
Grabbing a hot mid-major is certainly no sure thing, as most of those hires have not worked out. A lot of those hires sure looked like home runs at the time, but this is all so iffy.
It sure is interesting (for me, at least) to look over all the names, though.
Edit: I think of the 50 or so who jumped from mid-majors, you can classify around 10-15 of them as successes.
Who is this year’s Musselman? There are objective metrics at hand.
Two years ago Craig Smith tied Musselman’s Nevada for the MWC championship and then won the tournament. Then last year won the MWC tournament again, beating San Diego State, no 1 seeded in the NCAA tournament. This year in the NCAA he led a lot higher seeded Texas Tech in the second half.
Objectively, Smith is the same as Musselman before Arkansas.
Smith played for the NCAA division II national championship before Utah State.
He immediately turned Utah Stare around.
You have to judge coaches on the curve in terms of their ability to recruit to the place they coach. In the NCAA playoffs he has a big talent mismatch.
Seems to me dismissing Smith is just sour grapes because he’s at Utah State. It’s particularly vexing to see him attacked for his looks. And ironic, considering who is our greatest coach.
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I don’t hate Smith, but this is a huge stretch.
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The numbers don’t lie.
Wikipedia lays out their respective coaching records in detail.
The reason we’ve made bad hires is too much emotion, not enough research.