Just out of curiosityā¦why do many U fans want Jensen to be the HC? Iām neither for or against. Just interested in reading rationale and reasons.
AJ has a more impressive coaching pedigree than just about any other candidate - Majerus and Popovich. He has both college and NBA coaching experience. It seems clear that heās on track to become a head coach; due to our history with him, we might have an opportunity to get him before others do. If he works out, heās a guy who would coach here for a decade or more.
I think there are 4-5 guys out there who you would have to feel good about hiring, and Alex is one of those.
And now thereās this:
This makes me think that JB is a realistic next option if AJ doesnāt say yes. Harlan is not afraid to go get Tier 1 options.
What candidate out there has a track record of recruiting to a P5 program? Only Thad Motta, and he just failed his physical.
I think Moser would make a big splash - a true headline hire - and that would probably translate into immediate recruits (not unlike the Enfield hire at USC).
The new coachās biggest recruiting challenge is recruiting Carlson, Jantunen, Larsson, and Martinez. If we can keep the core, we can hope to avoid the āstart in the gutterā plan that we had with Giac, Boylen, and Krystko.
We, as fans, need to prepare ourselves for a worst case scenario regarding players. We could lose Martinez and Jones if their fathers are not retained. We could lose Jantunen and Larsson to going home to Europe, and Carlsen to leave because he came here because K had a rep for developing big men.
Yes, Iām fun at parties.
My concern: three times in a row the Utes have hired dudes with a short head coaching resumes. It hasnāt worked out. Itās always a risk. You just donāt know. Look at the schools who hire a head coach with a track record, Oregon, Arkansas, Utah in the 90s, UCLA, USC. That is the least risky alternative. Do we want to play roulette or invest wisely? On the other hand, look at Washington, Utah the last three hires. And there are a lot of good head coaches out there who are accessible to us.
@SeattleUte Call me crazy, but I am willing to bet Harlan is doing this interview just for show, or to appease a major donor who loves AJ. I love him too, but this is too important a hire to gamble on someone whoās never been a college head coach. Iām ready to eat crow while shouting āGo Alex!ā if I am wrong.
You two crack me up. Ever since Alex started coaching with Rick, weāve been waiting for this opportunity. In the meantime, heās apprenticed under the best coaches around. Heās running a modern offense, but he knows old school basketball. We hoped heād be good enough at coaching to bring him home. And now heās good enough, and the timing may be right, and all you can do is pine away for some beardless dude who just lost in the first round of the tournament?
The only thing that gives pause with Alex is knowing how unlikely it is that Utah basketball ever returns to past glory. It would hurt less to fire someone else in four years than to have to fire Alex Jensen. And fired in four years is the most likely outcome here no matter who we hire. You canāt make decisions that way, though.
By the way, how did we ever get suckered into Giac? That guy was an assistant at a mid major! We wonāt even look at that now. Boylen and Larry both made sense, but Giac? Head scratcher.
Hereās what youāre missing. Great coaches are not made. Theyāre born. Like great quarterbacks, itās that intangible something thatās elusive of forecast that makes the difference. What percent of coaches hired to their first head coaching job succeed, much less become great? 5 percent? Thatās your odds of hitting a winner if you hire an assistant. Itās gambling. How many Duke assistants have failed? Even Quinn Snyder was one of them. Itās not alll about working for successful head coaches. Hardly.
But if you hire a head coach with a record of success? The odds are much better. Take an extreme example. What if we hired Mark Few? The odds of firing him in four years (per your formulation)? Zero. Nearly the same for Musselman, moving from the extreme.
I submit that with a candidate like Craig Smith, success is not a certainty, but the likelihood is a lot higher than five percent. Head coaches who succeeed one place tend to succeed in the next job at a much higher rate than new entrants to head coaching.
Success is a lot about playing the odds.
Just a guess, but I believe itās more of a sales pitch than an interview. Right guy. Right time. Right place. Letās git āer dun.
Iām not a Craig Smith proponent. I love AJ, but the prospect of him being head coach makes me nervous. Thatās all.
The story goes, that Chris Hill, went immediately after Mark Few to replace Majerus. Mark was not then and is not now interested in leaving Gonzaga, but he gave Hill a very strong recommendation for (someone who may have been) a close personal friend and an up and coming coach near Gonzaga, Giac.
Further, according to Mark Few, Giac, would have been wildly successful, had Hill not listened to a bunch of āInternet Jackalsā (UFN?) and fired Giac a few years later.
Never mind that Giac was not before, and has not been since, a successful head coach.
Mark Few sold Chris Hill hard on Giac, and Chris fell for it. According to Few, Giac was canāt-miss, a sure-fire future star. In fairness to both of them, Giac had some personal issues that neither Few nor Giac could have anticipated, probably.
ā¦interestingā¦ I assume that he did not managed to over come whatever his personal issues were by the time he went on to coach at Drake?
Iām not trying to be flippant, and itās easy to cast aspersions on someone you hardly know and who is a public figure. The truth is that I met Giacoletti several times during his tenure at the U, and liked him - heās actually a very personable, and decent person from what I saw of him. And I know that he cared about the program, and wanted desperately to succeed.
@RockerUte, Iām no Giac apologist. I think Few bears a lot of the blame for using his reputation to sing Giacās praises in such an over-the top manner that Hill was fooled. Giac never should have been hired and needed to go. Hill shouldnāt have been fooled and owns the decision. But the whole sorry episode made me think less of Few.
For all our grief, in this still young century, the Utes have still had six NCAA tournament appearances, two Sweet Sixteens, four round of 32s. Thatās better than a whole bunch of P5 and other storied programs you can name.
Thatās a totally justified concern. But outside stealing someone like Musselman I just donāt see the sure thing, do you? So Iād be willing to take a calculated flyer on AJ or JB as much as anyone else. Thereās some wisdom in Craig Smith as well. My gut tells me Moser is out of play this far west.
This is true. None of the candidates Iāve seen are sure things. All of them would make me nervous.
I like Rockerās plan of poaching a successful P6 head coach. McDermott? Yes, please. Iām just not sure we can do it.
Greg Marshall is probably a sure thing. As is Rick Pitino. I think itās a good sign for us as a fan base that we arenāt really willing to go there.
Who is this years Musselman? I donāt think there is one. Musselman was hugely successful at Nevada. Nothing comparable currently exists, right? Moser seems like the biggest fish among the mid majors (other than Few, of course), and Iād be thrilled to have him. Iām even willing to move him up to Tier 1.
In the meantime, since success is about playing the odds, how do you play the odds when the odds are unknown? I like data. Iād love to dive into data on P6 coaching hires over the past 20 years. What type of hire is the most successful? Is there statistical significance? Is it all just a crapshoot? We can cherry pick examples, but Iād love to know what the data says.
Iām not convinced that hires of coaches who have had a few successful seasons with a mid-major come with higher odds of success than other types of hires.
So, yes, I want to play the odds, and I will jump all over someone who appears to bring high odds of success. Which is why Alex Jensen and Johnnie Bryant are in the top tier of candidates. They arenāt up there because we are nostalgic for better days. Notice that nobody has KVH, Andre Miller, or Mike Doleac in Tier 1. AJ and JB are there because everyone seems to think they are desitined for coaching success, and we might have an opportunity to grab them before others do.
Since you specifically mentioned Craig Smithā¦we can definitely do worse. I would not complain about that hire, but nobody could classify it as a sure thing. Getting to the tournament is a measure of success, and he did that. It is also true that he would have no tournament appearances without Cueta. Itās not clear to me how good USU really was this season. They beat SDSU twice, which is good (not as good as our two best wins), and their next most impressive win is probably CSU. They were blown out by VCU and South Dakota State. Lost to Boise State twice. Lost to CSU, BYU, and UNLV.
Smithās resume at this point is comparable to Hurleyās when ASU hired him. Itās not as good as Archie Millerās when Indiana hired him. Itās better than Richard Pitinoās when Minnesota hired him.