D-I College football thread, non-Utah edition

Football
3360

I have no issues with Alabama being left out (although 3-1 vs top 25 vs zero top 25 games is more valuable to me but :man_shrugging:). All they had to do was handle their business and they didn’t. I don’t have an issue with anyone other than Oregon, Georgia, and ND being left out. This season is filled with flaw teams and probably would be a better year with 4 team playoff where last team needed 12.

I think autobids will die because of this season. Arizona State is probably getting a bye and do we really think that is a top four seed worthy of a bye?

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3361

Big12 and the ACC really don’t look like they can compete with anything coming from
The Big10 or SEC this year.

And BSU…. I’m fine with a 12 or 16 team playoffs bit the autibid setup is always going to introduce some um…weak sisters.

That being said, I also don’t want to see 12 teams all from the B10 and SEC.

Kill the preseason polls. Kill conference divisions. Eliminate credit for playing citadel and the like. And then embrace the bloodbath I suppose.

Go Ducks!?

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3362

I was bored so I prompted Chat GPT:

“You are an expert at sports. You are tasked with slotting a tournament based on results on the field but the teams don’t have common opponents. Ask Questions as needed to better this prompt. 11 of a 12 tournament are slotted but there are two teams for the 12 spot. Team One is 11-2 and lost in their Conference title game. They also have zero Top 25 wins going 0-2 vs top 25 teams but they also have 11 wins. Their strength of schedule is ranked 60th. Team Two is 9-3 and didn’t play in a conference title game. They are 3-1 vs Top 25 teams but only have 9 teams. Their strength of schedule is 16th. They have one loss vs a top 10 team and two 6-6 teams. Who gets the 12th spot?”

Results:

To determine which team deserves the 12th spot in the tournament, let’s evaluate the key factors that differentiate the two teams. Here’s how we can assess this:
1. Overall Record
• Team One: 11-2
• Team Two: 9-3
• Edge: Team One, due to the higher win total.
2. Performance Against Top 25 Teams
• Team One: 0-2 (winless against ranked opponents)
• Team Two: 3-1 (strong record, including wins over quality teams)
• Edge: Team Two, significantly better performance against top-ranked competition.
3. Strength of Schedule (SOS)
• Team One: SOS ranked 60th.
• Team Two: SOS ranked 16th.
• Edge: Team Two, far more difficult schedule.
4. Loss Quality
• Team One: Losses include their conference championship game and one other unranked opponent.
• Team Two: Losses to a Top 10 team and two 6-6 teams.
• Edge: Slightly favors Team One due to fewer questionable losses.
5. Participation in Conference Title Game
• Team One: Played in the conference title game but lost.
• Team Two: Did not play in a conference title game.
• Edge: Team One gets some credit for making it to a title game.
6. Win Quality
• Team One: No Top 25 wins.
• Team Two: Three Top 25 wins.
• Edge: Team Two, due to stronger win quality.

Decision:

While Team One has more total wins and participated in a conference championship game, Team Two’s superior performance against ranked teams, significantly stronger strength of schedule, and quality wins give them a stronger case for the 12th spot. Team Two should be selected for the tournament.

Further analysis:

Here’s a deeper breakdown of why Team Two deserves the 12th spot:

  1. Overall Record

• Team One (11-2): A solid record, reflecting consistency and the ability to win games. However, the lack of quality wins and the weaker schedule suggest that many of these victories came against lower-tier teams.

• Team Two (9-3): While the win total is lower, they achieved their 9 wins against a much tougher slate of opponents, including three ranked wins, demonstrating the ability to perform at a high level.

Why Team Two Gets the Edge:

Quality outweighs quantity here. Winning fewer games against stronger opponents is more indicative of success at a national level than beating 11 unranked teams.

  1. Strength of Schedule (SOS)

• Team One (SOS: 60th): Played a softer schedule, which inflates the value of their 11 wins.

• Team Two (SOS: 16th): Played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation and still managed a 9-3 record.

Why SOS Matters:

Strength of schedule is a critical measure of how challenging a team’s path to their record was. Team Two consistently faced tougher opponents and still outperformed expectations. Playing a Top 25 schedule and achieving three ranked wins is more impressive than cruising through lower-tier opponents.

  1. Performance Against Ranked Teams

• Team One (0-2): Failed to win against Top 25 teams. This indicates a lack of ability to perform against high-caliber opponents, especially important in a tournament setting where the competition will only feature top teams.

• Team Two (3-1): Boasts an impressive record against Top 25 teams, proving they can compete and win against strong opponents.

Why Team Two Excels Here:

Tournament slots favor teams that have shown they can beat elite competition. Team One’s inability to win against ranked teams (despite having opportunities) is a glaring weakness.

  1. Loss Quality

• Team One: Lost their conference championship game (likely to a quality team) and another game. Neither loss stands out as bad, but the lack of competitive wins mitigates this strength.

• Team Two: Their losses include one to a Top 10 team (understandable) and two to 6-6 teams (more questionable).

Why This Factor Is Close:

Team One avoids “bad losses,” which helps their case, but their inability to win against ranked teams diminishes the value of their losses. While Team Two’s two losses to .500 teams aren’t ideal, their ability to beat Top 25 teams makes up for it.

  1. Conference Title Game Participation

• Team One: Gets credit for making it to a conference championship game, showing they were among the best in their conference. However, they lost this game, which detracts from its significance.

• Team Two: Did not play in a conference title game, which could suggest they were not even the best in their division.

Why This Factor Slightly Helps Team One:

Participating in the title game reflects success at the conference level, but losing it diminishes the impact, especially without Top 25 wins to back it up.

  1. Win Quality

• Team One: Lacks any marquee wins (0-2 vs Top 25), so their wins hold less weight on a national scale.

• Team Two: Three wins against ranked opponents, demonstrating their ability to perform at a high level.

Why This Is Critical:

Team Two’s wins have higher value and prove they can handle the type of competition they’ll face in the tournament.

Summary

Here’s how the key factors stack up:

Category Team One Team Two Advantage

Overall Record 11-2 9-3 Team One

Strength of Schedule 60th 16th Team Two

Performance vs. Top 25 Teams 0-2 3-1 Team Two

Loss Quality Better Slightly Worse Team One

Conference Title Game Played Did Not Play Team One

Win Quality No Ranked Wins 3 Ranked Wins Team Two

Final Verdict: Team Two

While Team One has more wins and the prestige of playing in a conference title game, Team Two’s better strength of schedule, superior performance against ranked teams, and quality wins make them the better candidate for a tournament setting where competition against top teams is the norm.

If you’d like, I can explore further hypothetical metrics or contextual considerations. Let me know!

3363

Also (I’m calling out the SEC) play more Conference games or play less. It has to be uniform. Also, eliminate the FCS games. If you want to play less conference games or FCS games you have to punished in the committee’s eyes.

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3364

Honestly I expect Alabama beats SMU 7/8 times but I am so sick of GA and Alabama I really just want both to lose and go away for a few years.

And AI is going to eat our world. We are doomed.

3365

AI is a tool. Nothing more.

Also, Georgia and Alabama are only good because of the communities they vote against. Schools with high benchmarks for acceptance keep these kids trapped going to UA and UGA.

3366

AI is just a probabikity machine, adding the next word that makes the most sense based on training on things from the past. In this case, it makes arguments we hear from committees in these types of justifications we’ve heard in the past, perpetuating similar reasoning if imperfect factors. So no surprise it sounds like what we have heard in the past or potentially hear today in various justifications.

3367

It’s already starting to reduce jobs in medicine i.e. Radiology and other disciplines. Quite a buzz at the cooler these days.

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3368

Yes. It makes arguments that are the standard for decades. Play tougher schedules and beat more higher ranked teams and be rewarded.

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3369

Jobs are always replaced by tech (we used to be majority ag workers). It will free up humans to go after other fields etc or maybe even make us have a need for universal basic income.

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3370

So very much this.

Teams get “big” early season wins against ranked teams that ultimately mean nothing because the team isn’t actually any good and doesn’t deserve that ranking. I.E. Florida State, Utah, or Ok State this year.

But when things are tight between potential playoff teams at the end of the season, the experts point to “number of ranked wins” as an indicator of schedule strength.

It’s a circle of stupidity that could be easily avoided by simply waiting 3-4 weeks into the season before doing rankings.

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3371

A certain team won a mythical national championship based on a win against a team that was preseason number 3. That preseason number 3 team ended up 3-7-1.

So yeah, wait a few weeks before ranking the teams.

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3372

I get what you are saying about preseason polls but by the end of the year we have a pretty close to accurate Top 25. We don’t mark Top 25 wins by ranking when played but by last rankings of the season.

Preseason rankings are only bad for teams who get hopeful for the season and their team underachieves like FSU.

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3373

Wat?

Wins over ranked teams are counted as are wins over ranked teams, regardless of when during the season it happened.

3374

Well, not with what they are saying currently on TV. A win over Preseason Ranked FSU is not counting as a Top 25 win now.

3375

I am going to root for Indiana because why not

3376

I think it’s sweet that Tennessee and Ohio football fans get to hang out together outside of their January 6 sentencing appeals

As for Alabama… I don’t really care. After they lost to OU I thought they were out.

Pretty cool the Pac 12 has two first round byes. Maybe SC was smart dismantling the conference.

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3377

The best part of that is USC and UCLA having to sit on the sides.

I haven’t forgiven UO or UW but USC still gets the largest portion of my eternal loathing.

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3378

Eh. You can’t blame them really. After the big market leaves you gotta find the life raft that will help you the most. I’ll be pulling for Oregon in my Rose Bowl seats.

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3379

Absolutely

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