The easiest way to shut up blowhards is to put money on the line. You said that you believe your stepson the ER physician that 50% of Americans will be infected with Corona Virus. That’s a conservative figure of 165 million people infected with Corona Virus in the U.S. For $100 I’ll take the under. Deal?
Similarly, estimates of 3.0% fatality rate are ridiculously high. I’ll set the over/under at 2.25% and $100 on the under. Deal?
Reading for comprehension isn’t your thing, is it? The only blowhard here is you. I merely said there are dire predictions in the medical community. I even used the word “may,” not “will.” I never even said I believed them, but I am far more likely to believe someone who’s working to put thing in place to protect their patients help and is trained in the field than some economist.
And this ^^^ is why we have panics.
The greatest impact from Covid-19 will be the economic impact from the panic response. The base case forecasts project 1.0 million cases worldwide and 4-5% hospitalization rate, not death rate. You come on here spouting panic from an ER doctor, at the VA no less, that 50% of the U.S. will be infected. Keep on believing that.
Haver: economist Paul Kasriel, March 5. On Fed lowering FFR.
As long as we are bloviating…
Bloomberg published an article over the weekend that I posted on the other CorVid19 thread that did scenarios. Suggest we read that.
Still isn’t what I said or did, so I don’t feel any need to worry about your repeated attacks.
I went back and reread his post. I didn’t get that feeling at all. Why all the anger man?
The Diablo in all of us.
I am trying to post whatever I see that seems to provide useful information or points of view. Personally, I’ve grown more and more concerned about COVID-19 because I fly every week, and my wife also flies often. That worries me.
That said, here’s a guy who’s needlessly sharp-edged in this op-ed, but I hope he’s right.
I think we all hope he’s right.
But it’s good for us (both individually and collectively as a nation) to have some preparation and contingency plans in place in case he’s not. That fact that we seem to be struggling mightily on both fronts is…concerning.
“Fist bump”
OK, this is not comforting. Posted on Facebook by a physician connection of mine. It’s anecdotal, but still…
Coronavirus (COVID-19) update:
I haven’t posted much other than memes lately, but as a primary care physician practicing in Tarzana, I wanted to give you my experience, and information that I know to be true. I won’t mention hand washing or sanitizers, or things that everyone obviously knows, as there is plenty of information about this already.
I have two patients right now with CV, one hospitalized, and one not, and am close to a third patient. Essentially, 14 men went on a ski trip to Northern Italy. All have become ill, and all 14 have tested positive for CV. Of the 14, 4 needed to be hospitalized, and of the 4 patients, 3 are very ill as I write this. One had a significant pre-existing medical condition. The other 3 did not, and are relatively young. The news today out of Northern Italy is not good.
I have practiced for over 30 years, and have seen it all, or so I thought. Nothing has worried me like this. I recommend to all who read this that you avoid going to large group events such as sporting events, and concerts. I believe that all schools should be closed immediately and classes conducted online, which is relatively simple. I know that so far, children infected with CV have done relatively well, but they might come home and hug Grandpa, who won’t do so well. Avoid contact with others as much as possible. CV in the United States is at a relatively early stage, but it won’t last there for long. Make sure you have any medications you need, as well as supplies, but panicking hurts all of us.
My biggest hope is that I am totally wrong, and that you will all wonder in a few weeks what the hell I was talking about. But I have a pretty good track record, and I think you should take steps now to protect yourselves and your family. There is little cost to taking extra precaution right now, and the earlier, the better.
Feel free to share.
Sam Fink, M.D.
Fellow, American College of Physicians
I visited my elderly father in assisted living on Saturday with 2 of my kids. Now they both have coughs and my daughter had a fever last night. ugh…
He said stepson who’s an ER Physician at the VA was claiming Covid-19 could infect as much as 50% of the U.S. I said the best models from the Fed and other economic forecasters show a fraction of that. He said “I’ll believe a medical doctor over an economist anyday.” That comment shows that he does not understand and really was intended as an insult. Reality is that his medical doctor step son has zero quantitative modeling and forecasting experience and that is what this is about. They are trying to forecast the economic impact of Covid-19 and the base data they’re using are infection cases, hospitalization rates, and mortality rates all modeled after has transpired so far and from prior infectious diseases. I can assure you that those projected rates are not even close to “half the population infected.” Thus I called him out on it.
Federal Reserve has far more data at its hands than does a single ER doctor speculating on what he saw on The View. I asked him to put money on it and he came back with “that’s not what I said”. Well he did say his stepson said that half the U.S. population would be infected. It’s right there in his post. If he believed it, he’d take the bets offered. If not, then he’s just speculating and adding to the panic. So Which one is it?
Bloomberg, March 9: Map of US CorVid19 Cases.
Bloomberg, March 9: CorVid19 Global Tracking.
Global known cases vs mortality, 3.5%.
WSJ Analysis from March 7: How Many People Will Get Sick From the Coronavirus? Epidemiologists Model Answers.
Scientists quietly see a best-case scenario of tens of thousands of deaths; 10 million over two years is the worst case.
South Korea and Germany were very vigorous about testing. I believe that helped reduce the number of fatalities.
Additionally, China and Italy have a high percentage of people who smoke (both around 25%). Considering this is a respiratory virus, that will be a factor.
You must have missed the part in his post where he said “FWIW”
This thread is way too funny. Haha! Talk about twaddle.
Snip from Wall Street Journal article that just came out (rest is behind paywall):
Most people who catch Covid-19—the disease caused by the novel coronavirus—start showing symptoms roughly five days after infection, disease analysts at Johns Hopkins University said on Monday, in the largest such study of known cases world-wide.
Their findings firm up estimates of the virus’s incubation period before signs of fever, coughing and respiratory distress appear, offering support for current public-health control measures that recommend a 14-day monitoring and quarantine period for people who have been exposed to infection. Some state health agencies are recommending people isolate themselves for that period after returning from any international travel.
“We have a lot of confidence that the incubation period is around five days,” said Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health who led the team that analyzed the progression of the disease in 181 cases.
“Some people will have really short incubation periods and some people will have really long ones,” he said. “The goal is catching most cases that are infected and have symptoms developed before the deadline.”
Isolating people who may have been exposed to an infectious disease can limit an epidemic in the early stages of an outbreak, but only if public-health officials are confident they know how long it takes for people to show symptoms once they have been exposed. People are thought to be most contagious when they become symptomatic because the virus is typically spread when someone coughs or sneezes, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Other researchers studying a smaller number of cases estimated Covid-19 has an incubation period as short as two days to as long as 14 days, with a few reported cases taking up to 27 days to develop.
What’s tricky about this new virus, is it has all the same symptoms of a number of ailments. Common cold, flu. Allergies, etc. We could overwhelm our healthcare simply with anyone who has Spring hay fever.