There’s always this approach.
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Another point of view. What I find most interesting is this: How long can we continue the current protocols? We can’t shut down the economy, not for very long, at least.
54% of Covid-19 related hospitalizations in New York State are in the 18-49 age range per Andrew Cuomo press conference.
Somewhat related view: STAT: A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.
Marcus Smart of the Celtics tested positive and is self-quarantining at home… but has zero symptoms, “I feel like I could play an NBA game right now”.
Blood type may be one indicator, but it certainly seems that as the virus hammers some and leaves others unscathed, maybe we’re already far more infected as a population than we know… which has both good & bad repercussions.
Come on, data! Come on, scientists!
That tweet is funny… no humans = no canals
I’ve updated my model again today. The data comes from the Covid Tracking Project. Also I look at CDC, WorldoMeters, and 1Point3Acres numbers, all of which are different and in the case of the CDC incomplete. The Covid Tracking Project also backdates findings, based on what is reported through the states. So the data is in constant flux.
In modeling the daily growth rate (DGR), I have had to make some choices. The value I now use for March 6th to 22nd is 35.7% per day. I’ve had to make some choices, to minimize the net error for the last week or for the March 6 to 21 period. I’ve fussed with the numbers and made a decision that will need to be revised.
One point, I may need to use a lower rate for the first 10 days due to under-reporting from the lack of test kits, and raise the rate for the last week now that testing is better and more sick folks have gone to the hospital. My calculated infected population therefore is under reporting by 1,027 cases the spike in actual for May 20. Also, my assumption that social distancing will allow the infection rate to drop to 24% on March 23 will be tested soon enough.
They say it’s mostly because the silt can settle without the constant gondola traffic. But it is interesting animals wandering around empty streets. One city had wild boars roaming.
Are you assuming exponential growth since we are still on the way up or are you going to account for a logistic curve eventually?
Very tricky as you’ve mentioned since testing was low, now ramping up, and now there is some direction that they will only test people where treatment would be different if positive. So as they move from contain to mitigate phases, the data is tainted from several angles. Frustrating to update assumptions depending on time frame.
But thanks for you efforts!
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Yes. I don’t want to curve match with a polynomial. On the logistic curve…that is why my projection is short term. At this point, I only want to model the growth rate and do not want to go beyond a month.
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This is from the inspirational side of the discussion. I work with lots of physicians every day and I’ve always enjoyed working with the emergency room physicians, or “ER docs," as they often call each other. In the present crisis they and their ER colleagues, physician assistants, nurses, and aides are heroes. I enjoyed this ER doc’s blog post and am passing it along.
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some are arguing that the actions we are taking is decimating our economy. I’d argue that our economy was going to be decimated anyway. You could even argue that the actions we’ve taken will help us bounce back more quickly if/when this crisis is over.
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This is a deep dive into the data. I haven’t had time to get into much but it looks like it will be worth the time:
I have no background in biology, so I found this both interesting and fascinating. I also left me a little more optimistic and hopeful.