Assuming the Utes win out, they’ll beat number seven Oregon in the ccg, taking them out of the picture. Georgia and Florida each have a loss, and will play one another next week, so one of them will be gonzo, trimming the field by another team. Penn State and OSU still have to play, so there’s a decent chance that PSU will drop out of contention. That brings us down to six teams: Bama, Clemson, LSU, Florida/Georgia, OSU, and Utah. Bama and LSU may play in the conference championship, but the loser may still make the playoff, although that loss will be fresh enough that it might affect the playoff committee’s decision.
Of course, this is all contingent on a lot of things, including the actual playoff standings which may look different from the AP poll. Still, if the Utes handle business, and we see a couple of slip ups from the aforementioned teams, we may still be in the running. One week at a time, I know, but I’m not a player so I can dream a bit.
Bama and LSU are in the same division and play each other in two weeks. That doesn’t change your point though that the loser of that game could still make the playoff.
If we were to win out IMO we’d be fighting the Bama-LSU loser for that final playoff spot. This is how I think it plays out: Nobody in the ACC is going to beat Clemson. The winner of the Ohio St-Penn St game goes on to win the B1G. The Bama-LSU winner is going to win the SEC, leaving the UGA-Florida winner with 2 losses and out of contention. That leaves one spot, either for a 12-1 PAC champion (Utah or Oregon) or an 11-1 Bama/LSU.
Obviously wrenches can be thrown into this plan - if Clemson loses somewhere, if Wisonsin/Iowa/Minnesota beats Ohio St in the B1G championship game, or if Florida/Georgia wins the SECCG.
Yahoo sports doesn’t love us as much as they do Oregon:
No. 11 Oregon: CONTENDER
With a last-second field goal, Oregon defeated Washington State 37-35 at home on Saturday for its seventh straight victory. The Ducks are undefeated in Pac-12 play and will be favored in every game the rest of the regular season, starting next weekend with a trip to USC. Following a bye, Oregon rounds out its schedule with Arizona at home, Arizona State on the road and Oregon State at home.
USC and Arizona State won’t be easy, but if Oregon gets through the rest of the regular season without a loss and wins the Pac-12 title game — particularly over a quality team like Utah — the Ducks are going to have a legitimate CFP argument. Larry Scott and the Pac-12 have not beaten the drum for expansion to this point in the CFP’s existence. But what happens if a Pac-12 champion Oregon team with only a last-second loss to Auburn on its schedule gets left out? That’s going to be a tough pill for the conference to swallow, especially if Auburn wins a few of the difficult SEC games remaining on its schedule.
No. 12 Utah: PRETENDER
Utah has been cruising since its Week 4 loss at USC. Saturday night’s 35-0 win over Cal was its fourth straight victory. The Utes are essentially in the same position as Oregon: get through the rest of the regular season unscathed, win the conference title game and you’ve got an argument. But it won’t be as good of an argument as Oregon. A road defeat to three-loss USC will not be viewed the same as a neutral-site, last-second loss to Auburn. It just won’t be.
Auburn only has 2 losses but likely finishes with 3 possibly 4, they have no more road games. They have Ole Miss(easy W) Georgia(toss up) Samford and son(shameless late season scheduled glorified bye week W) Alabama(L)
USC will be 8-4 at best. If they do end up a 3 loss team then Utah is out of the PAC12 title game and Oregon will have at least 2 losses.
As far as ranking are concerned, right now Oregon’s loss is less damaging then ours but it’s not light years apart like these so call experts make it out to be.