Yep. More or less. In your scenario 3, Utah would be 8-5, likely not ranked in CFP (maybe no other pac12 either) so they could pick someone else like WSU. Or ASU if they don’t lose many (go USC!). And UO is in a good position but could be swapped put last minute by the committee when they evaluate the whole sesson compared to everyone else. The committee could decide Ohio St. or OU beat strong teams down the stretch and see how UO lost to Stanford and barely got by other mediocre teams.
Nothing given except if we win.
Discussed here: 2021 PAC12 FB Bowls