Which is just nuts considering they just lost to Oregon, losing them the head-to-head tiebreaker and putting them two games back in the division with only two games to play. As crazy as it sounds, it’s totally still possible, but only in one instance. They can still win the division by forcing Oregon into a 3-team tiebreaker. It would happen in this scenario:
Washington State wins @ Washington and beats Arizona
Oregon State wins @ Oregon and beats ASU
Oregon loses vs. Oregon State and @ Utah
If this scenario plays out, all 3 teams would finish tied @ 6-3 in conference play (a 3-team tiebreaker). The first tiebreaker is collective head-to-head record, but that would not settle the issue because all 3 teams would be tied @ 1-1 (Oregon beat Wazzu but lost to Oregon State; Wazzu beat Oregon State but lost to Oregon; Oregon State beat Oregon but lost to Wazzu). Well, the next tiebreaker is record against divisional opponents. If that were the case, Washington State would actually win the North. They would finish 4-1 in divisional games (W’s: Oregon State, Cal, Stanford, Washington; L: Oregon) while both Oregon schools would be 3-2 (Oregon W’s: WSU, Cal, Washington and L’s: OSU and Stanford; OSU W’s: Oregon, Stanford, Washington and L’s: Cal and WSU). They would win the Pac-12 North with a 7-5 (6-3) record, with OSU finishing 2nd and Oregon 3rd (due to the Ducks losing the head-to-head tiebreaker against OSU):
Washington State 7-5 (6-3)
Oregon State 8-4 (6-3)
Oregon 9-3 (6-3)
Utah would also clinch the South with a win over Oregon (needed for the scenario), setting up a
9-3 Utah (or 8-4 w/a Colorado loss) vs. 7-5 Washington State Pac-12 Championship Game. Washington State could then win the Pac-12 and go to the Rose Bowl with an 8-5 (6-3) record, which would have to be the worst team ever play in the Rose Bowl. And they would have earned it because they would have won their division and conference without any teams being ineligible for postseason play, which is a reference to UCLA in 2011. Also, Oregon State can only win the North if they win out, Oregon loses @ Utah, and WSU loses at least one more game. That would eliminate Washington State (5-4 or 4-5), giving Oregon State the North via finishing tied with Oregon @ 6-3 w/the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Thanks for this. I wondered what the next tiebreaker was after head to head. Obviously a complicated scenario, but possible. I think FPI gives Oregon St. a 4.9% chance, but to me, the WSU 3 team tie time scenario seems a little more possible (FPI says 1.9% chance).
As always, win and a team has more possibilities. Utah and Oregon have to win 1 more. Only one team can do that this week. Let’s root, root, root for the home team. If they don’t win it’s a shame…
You’re welcome. What can I say? I notice stuff. I also agree that the Wazzu 3-team tiebreaker is the most likely of the 3. That being the case because if Utah beats Oregon this week and ends their CFP run, I think it would seriously damage Oregon’s psyche, which would cause Oregon State to gain the confidence they need to beat their rival, especially if they’re coming off of another huge win against ASU. They’d also go into their game against Oregon knowing if they could win the North because Washington State’s regular season would already be completed (the Apple Cup is on Friday and the Civil War is on Saturday). If Washington State wins their final two games, which looks very likely because they have 1-9 Arizona at home then their rivalry game @ Washington (who has lost 3 straight home games), they would eliminate OSU from being able to win the North, while they’d also suddenly become huge Oregon State fans. A win by the Beavs over the Ducks would clinch Wazzu their first berth into the Conference Championship Game. That would be a seriously amazing accomplishment considering that it would come in a year where they fired their coach around mid-season.
The only way bASUra gets to smell the Roses is if the CCG winner is picked to be in the CFP, and the TRC chooses not to take the #2 PAC 12 team (possible , but not likely)… Since we closed that door for those dirty hippies in Eugene, no one in the PAC 12 CCG has a shot of getting picked for the CFP, so the CCG winner is going to the Rose Bowl.
In short, we have to win the CCG to “Smell the Roses,” otherwise we will be heading to San Antonio or Vegas for our BG.
We won’t/can’t go to the Vegas Bowl per rules since we are in Vegas for the CCG. The only way we don’t go to Alamo if we lose to CU AND the CCG to OSU AND Alamo picks 9-3 Oregon for the Alamo. With a CU win, we only have 1 loss in conference and everyone else (besides Oregon if they win) will have 3+ losses so Alamo would have to pick us if we didn’t go Rose.