A snip from The Athletic today (be sure to read to the end):
Lots of upstarts can separate themselves
Who is this year’s Indiana? The short answer to that common question: There almost certainly isn’t one. (More on that below.)
But maybe we mean something more modest, like, “Who will be this year’s least-blueblood CFP participant?” In that case, we have several candidates, and this weekend will weed through quite a few of them.
One reason 2024’s 11-2 Indiana was such a surprise: The Hoosiers had never won double-digit games before. With that in mind, according to Austin Mock’s updated Playoff projections, here are the best 2025 CFP odds among power-conference teams that last had 10-win seasons 14 or more years ago:
Texas Tech (2008), 33 percent chance to make the Playoff
NC State (2002), 8 percent
Vanderbilt (never), 2 percent
Cal (2006), 2 percent
Arkansas (2011), 1 percent
You could extend that list all the way down to 3-0 Rutgers (<1 percent). Or, if you lowered the threshold to 13 years, you could add Nebraska (14 percent) and Texas A&M (42 percent), but those aren’t exactly upstarts.
Here’s another list. Among powers that haven’t finished in the AP top five in the past 60 years:
Indiana (18 percent) just missed the cut by having finished No. 5 in 1967, so include the Hoosiers too. Honestly, Indiana making both of the first two 12-team Playoff fields would be as big a shock as anything else.
And of course we should mention Mock’s top CFP odds among G5 teams:
Tulane , 37 percent chance to make the Playoff
Navy , 18 percent
Memphis , 14 percent
USF , 8 percent
Boise State , 7 percent
Also, because we’re talking as much about public perception as we are about team accomplishments, that final list could include teams that joined the power-conference level within the past 20 years, which means there are still people who think of them as Cinderellas despite their many big wins. Tops there: Utah (33 percent).
It was really too bad Rabbit went down - it he is full speed, he covers a lot of ground. I wonder if Scalley might tap into Snowden some on the backend, or get Bennee back there with Tao Johnson.
The 2019 defense was elite. On the back end we had Julian Blackmon and Terrell Burgess, who could both press cover and play centerfield. Scalley would move them around pre-snap and opposing QBs had no idea what exactly what the coverage was going to be.
Supposedly there is some concern in TT land about their OTs. Need the pass rush to force QB decision making, and the DEs to hold the edge.
If my memory serves me correctly, we have been extremely good at home (throwing out last year) against good/great teams. The one exception I can recall is the game at home against Bo Nix’s Oregon team.
I don’t think TT did themselves any favors having their first road game and first real challenge being in SLC. You might say that about Utah as well, but at least we’ve had a couple of road games,candy at the time we played UCLA was a mystery.
I guess I have PTSD from some day-time games against Boise St and TCU, who both run us out of the stadium. Tech can score and score fast. Our DB’s have shown a vulnerability letting people behind them. Unlike most teams, it doesn’t look like Tech cares if they can run the ball. They are a pass first team. Hopefully we can get pressure without needing to blitz. If we can’t do that, it could spell trouble. I’m going with 34-31 Utes and crossing all my fingers and toes.
There is just something about this game that has me on edge. Neither team has played anyone and the hype train will be in town, and I hate the hype train.
Is the defense good enough to stop an air raid? Will the O line dominate these guys like they did the bRUins? Will we see our A game for 4 quarters?
I am not going to Ju jitsu open mat because I not only want to watch the games for the Utes, but I want to honor the sold out stadium crowd that’s making effort to be the 12th player @ REC.
While I’m also biting my fingernails with anxiety, I’m hoping that both the home crowd and a well-disciplined team pulls off a spectacular win on national TV. Just like the prior championships and spectacular lead up games.
Go UTES!!
Crowd:
A+. Arrived early and loud. Tech had 7 false starts.
Offense: F - No run game; 3 deep shots where WR was open 2 poor throws and TD; 72 offensive plays and only 4 chunk plays.
Defense: Quarters 1-3 - A. Gave up a total of 260 yards. 4th Qtr. - F. 4th qtr gave up 224 yards. Tech also ran 72 offensive plays and had 17 chunk plays.
Like too many games last year the offense was putrid but when they pulled to within 3 early in the 4th quarter to trail 13-10, defense immediately gave up a 4 play 75 yard touchdown drive and it was game over. This happened against ASU, BYU, ISU and Houston. Offense goes ahead, has the lead or cuts the lead to one score and the defense needs 1 stop and cannot do it.
I’d be more generous to defense. They ran out of gas in the 4th. Yes they gave up chunk plays, but what did our offense do to help them stay off the field? Very little IIRC. The offense was abysmal and very much looked like what we were doing the last 2 seasons.
Let’s hope that Dampier is fully healthy, and finds some form of accuracy and touch with his throws. Because until he does, opposing defenses are going to do everything they can to stop our run game.
I agree the offense did nothing to help the defense, but the time of possession was 5 minutes in favor of Tech, which in my mind is not very significant. I think the OL and the DL were both bullied by the Tech DL and OL.
Just a matter of Texas Tech being that good? Obviously we must not have a lot of 1-TD games like we did last year or we’re looking at another very long struggling year.
I say Utah looks hard at its OOC schedule and eliminates the . We had no wayof knowing how bad bRuins were, but the days of playing “The Sisters of the Poor” has to come to an end.
If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best. There is simply too much of a talent gap to think these “tuneup games” have any value.
That stated, given the current state of affairs in CFB it seems time to consider whether Utah should be placing this much emphasis and financial resources into athletics.
Next year we have Idaho, Arkansas, and Utah St. All at home. Those could be reasonable tests, although I don’t know much about the Vandals. They played Wazzu tough this year.
