Utah vs. Florida Predictions

I appreciate the detailed description you provide.

First games are always wildcards, and Utah fans wish they could have that first game last year back. Richardson terrorized our defense, and when we focused on him ASU transfer Ricky Pearsall and others were more effective. The mystery for Utah in looking at Florida last year is how the team seemingly didn’t improve much after Week 1. Was it injuries? A relatively lopsided offense getting picked up on film for subsequent teams to dissect?

This year it’s another Week 1 game, though Napier has had a full year of getting his system installed & recruiting the kind of players he wants.

The trouble with the three young WRs you mention is they are freshmen. We have a FR 4* WR from California named Mikey Matthews we think could be pretty good, but he’s buried in the 2 deep at WR. We hope to see him get some snaps in Game 1, but the other 5 WRs in the rotation are much more experienced.

SR DeVaughn Vele is 6-5 / 210 and can run, his ability to highpoint passes reflects his 40" vertical in basketball. JR Money Parks (5-10/175) is a jet who really worked hard last year to see the field, with that effort paying off as he became a weapon, outrunning the USC defense for a 70 yard TD in the PAC championship game, for example. We have two newcomers, SR transfers, that figure to get featured - Mycah Pittman is 6-0 / 214 via Florida State and Oregon before that. Is this the year he stays healthy? Another interesting insight with Pittman is he’s known Cam Rising since the 8th grade, and though they took different routes to become teammates - Texas, Oregon, Florida State - I think there’s an unspoken goal between them to make 2023 as memorable as possible. (Pittman’s older brother Michael was a force at USC, which is why he’s in the NFL).

The other SR WR transfer is Emery Simmons 6-1/180 who’s been described as a “jack of all trades”, who started at NC State and then at Indiana, and looking to make the best of one last year out west with the Utes. We rotate WRs a lot, with Soph Makai Cope (6-3/200), converted TE JR Munir McClain (6-4/217) and RS FR Sidney Mbanasor (6-5/214), all big bodies with great hands. Also, at Utah, if they’re on the field that means they can block.

I’ve focused on our WRs because that position group has been relatively late to bloom in the Whittingham era, as previously we won a lot of games with a stingy defense, punishing ground game and special teams players that are now in the league. This year we have a new WR coach Alvis Whitted, who has impressed and motivated even our senior WR Vele with his detailed knowledge of the position, honed from years in the NFL and coaching in the B1G.

For those who know Whittingham, he’s the classic grinder, and though it may sound weird that his program is still developing in his 18th year, it reflects his unrelenting discipline to just keep getting better, himself. He’s personally a devotee of the weightroom, stair-master, swimming, mountain biking. Throughout the years his players have absorbed this, it’s a key foundation to the Utah football culture, and a primary reason Utah has historically over-performed in terms of winning games far beyond what their recruiting rankings suggest. We’ve finally broken through in getting recruiting classes closer to our final rankings of the previous year.

The situation with Rising is interesting because his status gives veteran OC Andy Ludwig a lot of camp time to evaluate / develop the other QBs, and it also means Lud can dip into his personal playbook of about 500 plays to find some unseen-at-Utah plays to capitalize on big early season games vs FL and at Baylor, and to mitigate whatever the situation is with Rising.

I won’t say much about the defense, except they’re very talented - Whitt mentioned among the best we’ve had - experienced and there’s no shortage of motivation to atone for last year’s game in Gainesville. Our DC Morgan Scalley played FS for Urban Meyer here at Utah, and has seen many NFL QBs, WRs, TEs and RBs in the PAC, so there’s no chance of him getting rattled. Our ability to adjust on D in big, nationally televised games vs Oregon and USC is the primary reason many think Scalley is a young heir-apparent to replace Whittingham when Kyle decides to ride his Harley into the sunset.

In terms of environment, Utah is a smaller stadium at 53,000 but broadcasters and opposing coaches don’t hesitate to list Salt Lake City as one of the toughest places to play, the toughest in the PAC - which is saying something with Oregon and Washington’s overhangs for the rain able to contain and reflect their crowd noise. At RES the crowd is very close to the field. Every seat is a good one, and the energy from the crowd is a distinct advantage for the Utes.

Another big advantage Utah has at home is the altitude, just under 5000 feet above sea level. Especially in warm early season games this translates into less oxygen, with the effective altitude on a warm night being closer to 7000 feet. The effects of hypoxia are cumulative over time, and by the fourth quarter many teams have sagged, with opponents’ hands-on-hips being the blood in the water the Utes use to take their effort to another level.

We’re not afraid of elite talent teams - Ohio State in Rose Bowl '22, USC’s Caleb Williams and his NFL bound WRs - and we have a lot to prove this year, perhaps because of the changing conference landscape and the move toward super conferences.

Utah will be ready.

Utes 27 Gators 21

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How good is Florida’s run defense? I think that will be the key. Whoever plays QB for Utah, will be limited.

Utah is going to run the ball like crazy, then PA to the TE’s. It’s what they do, and to expect something different is crazy. So, can Florida stop Utah from running the ball?

I they can, it will be an ugly, ugly game and whoever turns it over wins.

If Utah can run the ball. If Jackson averages 6+ yards per carry, then Florida is screwed. If Ludwig can force a LB/S up into the box then use his TE’s…He’s a master at that and we will score 30+. If we can’t run the ball, we will need a defensive TD and I hope we can get to 14 points.

So, how good is Florida’s run defense?

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Utah’s offense vs Florida’s defense looks really interesting.

They have a new DC, a 29 year old who came from Southern Miss. On paper they run a 3-3-5, but Austin Armstrong says in reality it’s a variation of the 4-2 like everyone else runs.

Complex, attacking scheme + new DC makes me wonder what Ludwig is seeing and putting together.

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All fair points and frankly I am a relatively pessimistic Ute fan and can see many scenarios where Florida wins. I realize Florida has played in difficulty places I think it is as much my belief that Utah plays well and feeds off the crowd as the away team playing or reacting poorly. Should be a great gam. In the second half last year Utah’s offense bullied Fl. and mostly moved it at will with the exception of a red zone appearance or two. If that happens this year, it will be tough sledding for you. And even tho in that half the OL was dominating still Cam has a lot to do with that and if he doesn’t play, or if he plays but is severely limited your score may just be right.

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I’ll give you the important info on DC Austin Armstrong. What is important about him is his experience at Louisiana and Georgia. Louisiana, Georgia, and Alabama run very similar defensive schemes. This is why Kirby hired him for quality control at UGA. Kirby knew Napier was very fond of Armstrong, and Napier gave him a good recommendation. It is also why Nick Saban hired Armstrong as his LB coach, but Armstrong was really selected for the purpose of being groomed as the next great Alabama DC after Kevin Steele retires. Saban knew he wanted Armstrong after Saban had to plan and prepare for his defense at Southern Miss in 2021. Saban spoke very highly of the Southern Miss defense Armstrong coordinated in 2021. He commented on the style and the energy of play…how it resembled an SEC defense. Armstrong has been considered a rising star, and he was also on Kirby Smart’s shortlist if Glenn Schumann were to leave Georgia for a head coaching job. What Armstrong was able to do at Southern Miss is highly respected in the Saban coaching tree.

Two performances really stand out from Armstrong’s defenses the past two years. Armstrong went head to head with Hugh Freeze, one of the better offensive minds in college football, and limited Freeze to 0 TDs in quadruple OT. Armstrong also helped Southern Miss last year beat Tulane, who would go on to beat USC in the Cotton Bowl.

The hire is good for Napier for a couple of reasons. Armstrong is a very good DC, but he was also in the building when former Florida DC Patrick Toney was the DC at Louisiana. So, he’s very familiar with Florida’s defensive system, and he got to do a 2 year internship implementing that system on his own at Southern Miss. Nick Saban was so impressed with his performance in that role that Nick Saban was going to bring him on staff in Tuscaloosa to be his future DC there. Then Napier came in and stole him away because Napier wasn’t going to make him wait to be DC a year or two down the road. Napier went ahead and promoted him all the way to DC now.

The numbers say Armstrong is really good at producing turnovers. And he is really good at getting after and affecting the QB. Southern Miss was really good at generating negative plays. They were an elite team in that regard. They did give up a lot of big plays, though. So, that is something to watch. Nonetheless, Napier starts with the scheme he wants to run…it is the same scheme Bama and UGA run, and then he hires his DC based on running that scheme. Armstrong is a continuity hire that worked under the last DC in Napier’s program at Louisiana. So, he’s an excellent continuity hire since he knows the ins and outs of the scheme and Napier’s program. Florida should not skip a beat with Armstrong taking over for Patrick Toney.

I am eager to see this as well. On paper the DT depth is light years better than last year. That is due to two freshman becoming sophomores and the two players from the transfer portal.

Napier speaks with a lot of respect when he speaks of Utah. He talks about the challenge involved with defending Utah’s scheme. He has even said in the past that he would love to go out to Utah one summer to talk football, offense, X’s and O’s with Whittingham once there are no more scheduled games to worry about.

Brock Bowers and Brent Kuithe shredded the Gators last year from the TE position. We have to face both of them again this year. I am curious to see if the Gators find a way to adjust this year.

All I want is good smoked ribs, baked beans, cornbread, coleslaw, some Asahi, and a great football game.

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Samsie’s. If Florida has issues at DT or is really married to the 3-3-5, then I see that as a big advantage for Utah. The 3-3-5 is built to confuse the OL and QB, but if you are just going to line up and run the ball up the middle, then that is advantage Utah.

I’d bet that Florida isn’t a 3-3-5/4-2-5 hybrid, but more of the USC 5-1-5/5-2-4 that Scalley keeps trying to run. If that’s the case, it would be a great match up of mano-y-mano. It would be a massive slugfest and a pleasure to watch.

The other thing to watch is the TE for Utah. Kuithe has been great for Utah BUT he coming off an injury AND he had Kincaid, who was the better TE, lined up next to him. Can Kuithe carry it on his own? Does Utah have another TE ready to step up? Is that Yassmin? Yassmin has shown flashes, but hasn’t put it all together yet.

Then WR wise…Utah will be good enough. We won’t look to throw to them much, but Parks and Vale are more than good enough to take advantage of a defense IF the running game is going and we can hit TE’s off the play action. But if we line up and try to get the ball to the WR’s…well, I’m not sure what the issue is, but Whitt has never figured out how to do what everyone else in the world can do. shrugs

Tell me about Florida’s offense? What is their goal? Because Utah’s goal will always be to stop the run #1. Whitt has said on multiple occasions that he doesn’t care how many yards a team throws for, but if you can hold them to less than 100 yards rushing, you win over 80% of the time. As much as we love QB’s and WR’s nowadays, being able to run the ball efficiently is still the key to football. And Utah is built to stop the run.

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Some very good posts here. Interesting to read.

If Utah is built to stop the run, and I believe that you are, then that is exactly what the Utes should do, and let Florida prove it can throw the ball with its Wisconsin transfer QB and an unproven WR group, other than Pearsall.

Utah’s homefiled advantage is legit. Anbody that pays attention knows this. It is going to be a great atmosphere for sure, and I hope the team and Gator fans who make the trip enjoy it. Probably won’t like the outcome as I believe Utah wins this game. The altitude is going to be a factor, especially in the 4th quarter.

Don’t get me wrong, I do like Coach Napier and what he is doing at UF. He just has a larger rebuild than most Gator fans like to admit.

So, just for grins…my score prediction.

Utah 31
Florida 13

RR

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I will do my best to answer this question. I think there are signs that the team was improving last year despite the overall record of the team.

One area I would point to is the completion percentage of opposing QBs. Stetson Bennett was a Heisman finalist. He tore up a lot of teams this past year, and he only threw about a 50% completion percentage against UF last year and he threw 2 INTs in the game. This is a back-to-back championship QB who compiled 3,425 yards, 68.1% completion rate, and had a 20:6 TD:INT ratio. He threw 1/3 of his INTs on the year against the Gators last year. His 50% completion rate against Florida was the lowest he recorded the entire year including the college football playoffs.

Haynes King of Texas A&M only threw about a 50% completion percentage last year. Spencer Rattler threw a 70% completion percentage against this defense, but only threw the ball for 145 yards in the game. That was a strange game warped by a flurry of turnovers by South Carolina. Vanderbilt only threw the ball for 108 yards. And Jordan Travis only threw a 43% completion percentage against Florida last year. That was also Travis’ lowest completion percentage of the year last year.

There is a very positive trend there, especially considering Jordan Travis and Stetson Bennett were two of the better QBs in the country last year. It also indicates a team that is headed in the right direction defensively. You are doing something right if you are holding good QBs to low completion percentages. Florida was susceptible to the big play in the passing game against FSU. So, cleaning up the big plays is going to be something to watch. Jordan Travis’ legs also were the thing that changed the game for FSU last year. He often escaped the pocket and got big chunks of yardage. So, Florida needs to contain mobile QBs better, which is why I think Rising’s legs matter quite a bit.

Florida also was ranked #1 in turnover margin in the SEC at one point. Florida finished top 20 in the country in turnover margin and #2 overall in the SEC in turnover margin. Anthony Richardson threw 7 INTs in the 5 games following Utah, and then he only threw 2 INTs the rest of the season after that. That is a mute point because Richardson is gone, but Napier is excellent at teaching his teams to take care of the football.

I will also cite some other statistics, which I tracked down myself and computed in Excel from the ESPN play by play results. Only 47% of Utah’s non-QB runs went for 3 or less yards last year. Only 6.25% of those involved negative yardage. This is how Florida tracked in those statistics game by game throughout the entire year:

Utah: 6.5% negative yardage, 47% 3 yards or less.
Kentucky: 3% negative yardage, 66% 3 yards or less.
South Florida: 0% negative yardage, 48% 3 yards or less.
Tennessee: 10% negative yardage, 65% 3 yards or less
Mizzou: 0% negative yardage, 57% 3 yards or less
LSU: 4.5% negative yardage, 50.5% 3 yards or less
Georgia: 5.4% negative yardage, 40.5% 3 yards or less
Texas A&M: 13% negative yardage, 60% 3 yards or less.
South Carolina: 24% negative yardage, 65% 3 yards or less.
Florida State: 14% negative yardage, 71% 3 yards or less.

So, I see signs that the team was improving in certain aspects. Hopefully, that improvement continues into the offseason. Also, some of the issues last year were definitely personnel related. Players such as DT Caleb Banks (Louisville), DT Cam’Ron Jackson (Memphis), LB Terradja Mitchell (Ohio State), LB Deuce Spurlock (Michigan), S RJ Moten (Michigan) were brought in to address some of those issues. Moten, Jackson, and Banks are expected to be starters.

Towards the end of the season, Florida was getting negative plays on RB runs at triple the rate they were at the beginning of the season. There is a clear improvement shown in the run defense in those statistics. It needs to continue to improve, but there was improvement there.

Also, the offense ranked in the top 40 in the country in total offense. So, that is not a bad offense, especially considering Florida played 6 ten win teams. Additionally, Florida ranked near the top of the country in yards per carry last year. Both Utah and Florida were top 10 in that statistic. But that was with a whole different OL and QB for Florida. The RBs return, though. So, I am not sure how helpful those statistics are for predicting how this offense will do against Utah this year. But it shows there was improvement.

This is the question right now. I think it is a debate in the fan base right now because of some things Shane Mattews has been saying. When Billy Napier came to Florida, I speculated that Florida would become elite running the ball because Louisiana ran the ball well. I was correct on this point as Florida was top 10 in the country in yards per rush this year. Billy Napier wants a physical OL that can run the ball in order to set up the pass. Billy Napier often used 12 personnel at Louisiana. There is speculation Florida could run more 11 personnel this year because of what the freshmen WRs can do.

What you should know is Billy Napier’s offensive influences are many. One of those influences is Joe Pendry, the former OL coach, and the architect of Alabama’s run game at the beginning of the Nick Saban era. Lane Kiffin is another influence. Napier learned a lot of what he wants to do in the play action game from Lane Kiffin. Billy Napier also rubbed shoulders with Todd Graham at Arizona State, and he picked up some Air Raid concepts in the passing game from him. Billy Napier in his opening press conference said his goal is to be a difficult 1 week prep for a defense.

He uses motion quite a bit. He uses play action a lot. Florida runs wide zone quite a bit in the run game, which is the bread and butter of all of the best NFL rushing attacks. Billy Napier’s offense has been compared to the 49ers offense under Kyle Shanahan. There is a lot in common between the two. I think Florida wants to run the ball in order to protect the QB. Florida wants a massive OL to lean on the opposing DL to get the DL tired. If the DL is tired, then it is hard to get after the QB.

Billy Napier also believes in a QB who is a threat to run the ball. This allows Florida to incorporate read-option plays into the running game. RPOs and WR screens are also part of Billy Napier’s offense.

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Here are some of the clips that have Gator fans optimistic. Shane Mathews was the first SEC championship QB under Steve Spurrier. He’s the one making these comments. Take it for what it is worth.

https://x.com/smooth189/status/1686376341900566529?s=46

https://x.com/ryanttkwilliams/status/1688940389510590464?s=46

https://x.com/matthewsmorning/status/1691939475943772653?s=46

https://x.com/matthewsmorning/status/1691200908649025536?s=46

https://x.com/smooth189/status/1688950891058016262?s=46

https://x.com/matthewsmorning/status/1686130557116096512?s=46

Also, I have seen rumored depth charts and it looks like the starting WRs are Ricky Pearsall, Marcus Burke, and Caleb Douglas.

Burke and Douglas have not done much so far in their careers at UF. They are completely unproven commodities.

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Man, there are a lot of posts with a lot of words for a prediction thread.

Utah 20, Fla 13

Lots of punting, not much offense on either side.

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Just wanted to say thanks to @GoGators for these posts. I don’t get into the analytics and X’s and O’s all that much, but really appreciate you taking the time to break down some of the matchups, strengths, and weaknesses. Very cool of you, and lightyears better than the juvenile trash talk message board banter that typically accompanies important games like this.

I think this one will be ugly, but Utah manages to come out narrowly on top, 21-17.

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Hey, I’m just trying to give y’all helpful analysis.

Something I heard today…Florida is flying in on Tuesday, two days before the game.

Florida reached out to NFL teams to get advice on what their process and plan is for preparing to play on the road at Denver. I have heard it might take time to acclimate to the altitude, but Florida does not want any travel delays that could disrupt their preparation process.

What I heard is Florida has hyperbaric chambers in the football facility that they have used in preparation for this game. So, getting to Utah early is not necessary.

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So they are leaving on Tuesday? Hopefully they’re taking Spirit Airlines, that should put them here early Saturday morning.

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Unless they’re running full practices in those chambers, good luck.

We just had the inaugural “Rock ‘N’ Roll Running Series Half Marathon” on Saturday. The number 1 feedback was it’s the toughest course in the series. The reason? Elevation.

Reality is you can’t prepare for elevation, unless you’re there regularly.

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Granted the altitude is higher and more varied, but the Wasatch 100 at one time was rated as one of the most grueling races in the world.

When I was on active duty, the medical protocol for running at Ft. Carson - coming from low altitude places like Ft Moore was to limit the speed of the run to a ten to twelve minute mile for the first week and no PT test for eight weeks. Since I spent my change of duty station in Utah prior to traveling to Ft. Carson, I was pretty well acclimated before I got there.

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If Cam isn’t already “testing his legs” then the Athletic Training staff aren’t doing their job. Obviously they can only do as much as his knee can take, but their job is to get him ready for return to play ASAP. The exercises they give him will be getting his knee ready as ready as possible. My guess is, that he will play against Florida, but he will likely have the knee in a brace, which may limit his mobility. SO hopefully working on his mechanics will show its worth in the throw game.

Neither Cam nor Kuite are going to play.

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