Was looking at ESPN FPI and Utah still has a 0.1% chance to win the conference. Arizona with a 0.7% chance. Oregon St., a 4.3% chance - they could make the CCG by beating Oregon and UW over the next two weeks, so their path is clear. For Arizona and Utah, I’m guessing it’s some convoluted multiple-team tiebreaker at 6-3 in conference with very specific teams (to make the CCG), then also the lower probability of beating the 1-seed.
Oregon would definitely have to lose both (unlikely to lose @ASU, but could) to be 6-3.
Oregon St. would have to beat Oregon but lose to UW (they’d be 1 seed) to be 6-3. I think if they lose to UW, they would be knocked out, but then it might actually hurt our tie-breaker scenario in a 3-way with Oregon and USC (a 2-way with Oregon would eliminate us head-to-head) - we’d be 1-1, Oregon would be 2-0, USC would be 0-2.
Winner of Utah-UA (also win their other game vs CU/ASU, respectively) would be 6-3. Edit: Utah needs to win to stay at 3 losses. Arizona, if they won, would have an inside track with 2 losses, but need Oregon to come back to the pack.
That would create a 6-3 tie with Oregon, Oregon St., Utah, USC (needs to beat UCLA) Edit: and Arizona
We’d lose tiebreakers in an Oregon, OSU, Utah triad based on record (OSU would be 2-0, Oregon 1-1, Utah 0-2)
I think the 4-way (edit: or 5-way), we didn’t all play each other, so would maybe get to the SOS which we’d win
I could totally be wrong.
I think Arizona would also need the same 4-some? They beat OSU, lost to USC, didn’t play Oregon. Edit: after thinking about this, their best chance is to stay at 2 losses, Oregon loses both - they have H2H over Oregon St.
I guess it’s Doctor Strange - there’s 1 way it ends well.
I still hope we win out, probably go to Vegas or Holiday Bowl, and end the season with a win to go 10-3. With all the injuries, that would be an excellent season.
Yeah. Last year, I think we had a 14% chance going into the last day. UCLA won. Then Oregon St. beat Oregon (during our CU game). We beat CU. Then we had to wait for UW to beat WSU to get in a 3-way with Oregon and UW (lost to Oregon, didn’t play UW). I still don’t fully comprehend how we ‘backed’ in. But we beat USC once and did it again, so earned it on the field. Looks like UO and UW will get their shot this year. With Oregon St. still just below looking in.
But, just for those keeping track, this week, we’d want Utah to beat UA (duh!), OSU to beat UW at home [edit: strike that, reverse it - OSU needs it’s 3rd conference loss to UW so it can beat Oregon to get everyone besides UW to 6-3], USC to beat UCLA (can they both lose?!), Oregon to lose @ ASU. Maybe that lifts our chances to 3%.
I can confirm your assessment. That was my finding as well. If Utah can force a 4 or more team tiebreaker with Oregon (who needs to lose their last two games), Oregon State (who needs to lose to UW but beat Oregon), and either of USC or Arizona (or both), I think Utah would emerge victorious in said multi-team tiebreaker because they would be the only team among those 4 or more tied teams who didn’t play Washington State (Oregon, OSU, Arizona) or Stanford (all of them).
You are correct in your assessment that bringing in USC or Arizona into a 4 or more team tie would negate Utah’s losses to Oregon and Oregon State, giving them a path to the Championship Game. This is because not all of the 4 tied teams would have played each other. Also, all of the teams tied would have only lost to Washington as a common opponent among all of them. None of the teams would have lost to any other common opponent shared among all of them (OSU lost to Wazzu, who Utah and USC didn’t play; Oregon would have lost to ASU, who Oregon State didn’t play). Since USC got to play Stanford instead of Oregon State and Arizona got to play Wazzu instead of Oregon, Utah would emerge with the strongest SOS, giving them the multi team tiebreaker and thus the 2nd berth into the PAC-12 CG against Washington. However, remember, this is all only possible if USC beats UCLA/Arizona beats ASU AND Oregon loses its last two games @ ASU and vs. Oregon State in Autzen. Utah CANNOT lose another game or they are eliminated because it would become impossible for them to finish tied for 2nd place with Oregon, who already has 6 conference wins (Utah would only be able to finish w/5 wins if they lose another game to the lay person). Also, if Oregon wins one of their last two games or Oregon State beats Washington, Utah is eliminated. Utah would also be eliminated if either of USC or Arizona doesn’t finish 6-3 (via USC losing to UCLA and/or Arizona losing to ASU).
No. That’s not accurate. We actually want Washington to win @ Oregon State. If the Beavers win, Utah is eliminated. This is because a win by Oregon State over Washington would put OSU @ 6-2 in conference play (they’re currently 5-2). Since Oregon needs to lose their last two games for Utah to theoretically finish tied with them @ 6-3 in conference, the Ducks need to lose their final game against Oregon State. Well, if Oregon State beats Oregon after beating Washington the week before, the Beavers would be 7-2 in conference, which would make it impossible for Utah to finish tied with them @ 6-3. Washington can lose one of their last two games, but they CANNOT lose to Oregon State, otherwise Utah would be eliminated regardless of what else happens with the other teams.
If all the aforementioned actually happens, it becomes like a 50/50 chance that Utah makes it back. Assuming USC beats UCLA this week, Utah would only need to beat Colorado and have Oregon State beat Oregon again and they’re in