NIL - Can it last?

Football
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As of yesterday SCORE was o hold possibly for another year. Which Congress critters got in the way this time?

It is all explosively out of control and while the TV idiots are still throwing money at it and the Billionaires are using it to buy a bit of stolen glory or whatever it’s going to permanently damage things. .

Said it before and sadly I’m still of the belief that it’s a complete detriment (currently) to university missions of academics and service to almost all the “other” students. No “school” should be paying a coach 7-12m a year. Or. 50+ million buyout?

Universities should lease out the stadiums.

It’s NFL lite. Let the NFL and businesses pay for it.

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This is such an interesting question and while I agree with all of your premises, I disagree with your conclusion. Changes are going to be made to the system but I think the basics of NIL are sustainable.

First the NFL is going to be fine. College players have 4 years of eligibility which drives up the value in college by creating scarcity but still forces the players to explore the NFL for their prime years. Even the oldest college players have many years of athletic performance remaining.

Further, getting well-known college players is good for the NFL because it drives interest. People like to see how the college stars perform in the bigs. Famous rookies are good for business. Their fame is free advertising.

Second, it is hard for society to restrict what billionaires do with their money. Everyone likes to spend money on entertainment. It is natural for Billionaires to spend on entertainment as well. Some of them like college athletics and they can take the role of generous hero to the program. Just imagine how revered the Texas Tech dude is when he shows up to campus. I am certain he is treated like royalty. What could he do with his money that would make him feel better given his loyalties and preferences? Probably nothing.

Is the rate of spending sustainable? Maybe, but that won’t change the system. If oil goes to $25 then Texas Tech will have less money to spend. But then oil will go back to $100 and Tech will have the most expensive roster again.

Third, for every program that is in a worse position (like Utah), there is another program that is in a better position. Texas Tech and BYU obviously love the new system. But they are not alone. Look at Vandy. Everyone looked at them as a bottom-of-the-barrel program that was destined to be left out of the next realignment. Now they are elite. Nashville has massive money and Vandy has a ton of rich boosters with a lot of influence. Why would they want to go back to the old system?

Boosters of the newly successful programs are going to be opposed of eliminating their new found success.

I expect changes to be made like contractual obligations from the players, but I don’t expect the genie to go back into the bottle.

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I paint a pretty strong picture, no doubt.

But consider the recent ruling where G-league NBA players who haven’t got to the NBA or a 2-way contact can now come back to college basketball. BYU has one coming next year. (It’s somewhat like how the European players in US college basketball have already earned money on club teams in Europe. Seems fair.)

On the NFL side, if a player is drafted but never gets off the practice squad… why could he not come back to college? Earn a lot more money, prepare for another crack at the NFL where he doesn’t get stuck on the practice squad.

If it was a talented Sophomore who gets drafted then stuck, not hard to imagine him coming back, then getting re-drafted… then coming back again. Why not?

One court ruling could open the door for a substantial erosion of NFL practice squads.

Oversight and enforcement power are so desperately needed. Not going to get the genie back in the bottle, players will still be played, but it may avoid the circus.

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The recruiting rankings have a big element of bogus. They’re based on gross points. So the more bodies you sign the higher your ranking. 247 has BYU at 21 and Utah at 36, but Utah signed 17 and BYU signed 21. Utah has two who are higher rated than any of BYU’s but BYU has 7 four stars and Utah has 1 five star and 2 four stars. Probably the average rating per player is similar. This may be the highest ranking ever for either school.

So the difference between Utah’s and BYU’s classes this year is not material. When you get up at Ohio State or Oregon or Georgia level, recruiting makes a huge difference compared to lower levels. However, has Indiana ever been in the top 30? And Florida seems always to have been in the top 10.

Below a small handful of recruiting elites with great coaches it’s still all about coaching.

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But wait he wanted thanks? I thought NIL was a licensing fee to use their image to make money. Did I misunderstand the wording? Does he expect thanks for any business he buys stock in? Or a horse he bets on?

I’m glad he’s catching on but I think he’s still a bit slow.

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I thought NIL was a licensing fee to use their image to make money. Did I misunderstand the wording?

It is.

Did I misunderstand the wording?

You didn’t

This is the whole issue, the players are signing large NIL agreements and doing nothing other than sitting back and taking checks. If a player is going to do that, and the person providing NIL doesn’t receive any value in return, I can see how someone might say, “at least say thanks”.

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And this goes back to what I’m said kicking off this thread. Donors to NIL are going to tire of the lack of ROI.

If BYU doesn’t make the Final Four this year do you think donors are going to be excited to come up with $7-9M for the next big thing?

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Is this the game changer as far as NIL goes? This structure would seem not to have ROI problems, maybe?

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Another article about how NIL is a problem for some.

Here is a snip
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In a 42-page complaint filed Tuesday morning in Boone County, Mo., Wilson’s attorneys allege a civil conspiracy involving the Bulldogs and Georgia’s collective to try to “penalize Wilson for his decision to transfer.” The suit alleges that they interfered with his ability to enter the portal and lied about his NIL buyout. The former five-star recruit spent this season at Missouri.

The move is a counter to Georgia earlier seeking to go to arbitration to get $390,000 from Wilson, alleging damages after the player signed an agreement to return to Athens for his junior season before entering the transfer portal a month later.

It’s also believed to be the first time a player and school have taken each other to court over an NIL dispute. The resolution could hinge on Wilson’s argument that the NIL agreement with Georgia’s collective was a binding contract.

“Georgia appears intent on making an example of someone, they just picked the wrong person,” said Jeff Jensen, one of Wilson’s attorneys. “Damon never had a contract with them. I don’t see how Georgia thinks intimidation and litigation will help their recruitment efforts — maybe players could bring lawyers with them to practice.”[emphasis mine]
+++++++++++++

I understand the plaintiff’s attorney is using sarcasm to make a point, but how really outrageous is the thought.

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James Nnaji commits to Baylor, adding to wave of former pros entering NCAA basketball - The Athletic

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the rumor is that former Cincy’s QB NIL deal (Sorsby) is $5 million with Texas Tech. What???

I just checked, his stats against Utah were 11/33 1 TD, 1 INT. That’s a lot of cheddar for a guy with Jon Hayes type stats.

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Sorsby to TTech for $5M explains they now appear to be focused on the offense, where last year they invested heavily on the defense.

The Youtube channel where they predict games but also list PFFs for the top players in previous games hints that the analytics are getting automated and really precise, to go along with film, investigating how the player did & how they responded to coaching, etc.

Example:

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it’s like a top that is going to spin faster and faster till it blows itself apart.

In the end the only ways I see this resolving are

  1. Schools turn athletes into employees with all the nightmare and hassle and risk that entails…
  2. Schools dump sports and spin or sell it off so it’s a separate entity and its no longer college athletics.
    I think 12 other things will happen before one of these two things because too many people have endless greed and short sightedness and don’t give a damn about the long term health of the sport…they just want their payday or their trophy and damn the future.
    I think #1 is less likely because most real colleges want no part of what comes along with that kind of employment. layers and layers of issues and expense and it would all loop back on tax payers and students to foot the bill which in the end…isn’t higher ed.

#2 is where I think it is going to end up…schools may retain some naming or sponsorship connections but ultimately they need an outside organization to act as employer and contract negotiator and…whatever else. Almost a reverse of the Ute’s PE investment. Someone else invests in the team and the College rides along for the advertizing.

That is my utterly uninformed opinion. Can it last? nope. Will it last long enough to become more absurd and do more damage? yep. Will rich jagoffs lobby and pressure congress and the courts in ways that make it even more painful than it has to be before it’s fixed? Yep.
Will college kids get rich quick but also get chewed up even more in the process? Yep. Will there be whole new kinds of ridiculous inequity like some kid who’s never thrown a college pass being paid more than an NFL player? Oh yeah, that’s already there…so…yep.

In other words…let me tell you how I really feel about it…

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If we look at the fine print, Utah is already there at #2. Yes, we will see some more ridiculousness on the way to that place for all of college athletics to get there, but the day is coming.

That said, the idea that was college athletics will formally die on that day. When it does, all bets are off on product survival.

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“Congratulations on joining Utah Brands and Entertainment! Enclosed in your benefits package, which includes full tuition and access to all University of Utah student programs, as well as full health and dental coverage for 5 years”.

I had one of our research faculty ask a tough question - why should a serious university have a football team?

My answer was in the US it’s about marketing, branding and alumni engagement.

I don’t think my answer made any difference… but even though they are a SLC native, they moved out of the country in 2018, Kings College of London.

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I’m fine with universities leasing out stadium space and having a brand or logo agreement for marketing. But I think the modern reality of college sports no longer justifies academic or student fee involvement. If it can be proven that a commercial investment in a sports team marketing agreement pays off for the university then treat it like any other patent or other business agreement a University can make on the side…and keep it out of the classroom and out of tuition and student fees unless it’s lowering them. and I say this having loved college football for over 50 years.

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Another NIL problem

Washington has ‘no intention’ to release QB who signed but plans to enter portal anyway

Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (2) throws a pass during the first half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium.

Demond Williams Jr. passed for 3,065 yards and 25 touchdowns, and rushed for 611 yards and another six scores on the ground this season. Troy Wayrynen / Imagn Images

By The Athletic College Football Staff

Jan. 6, 2026Updated Jan. 7, 2026 12:06 am EST

By Sam Jane, Chris Vannini, Bruce Feldman and Ralph D. Russo

Just days after Demond Williams Jr. signed a contract with Washington to return to Seattle for his junior season, the quarterback reversed course and announced Tuesday night he would enter the transfer portal.

The shocking decision sends ripples through the Washington program and the college football transfer portal. Williams had signed a contract agreeing to return to the Huskies, a Washington source close to the negotiations told The Athletic on Tuesday night. Yet, Williams said on Instagram that transferring was “best for me and my future.”

Washington has no intention of releasing Williams from the contract he signed on Jan. 2, a program source told The Athletic. The dispute could lead to a messy debate over the circumstances surrounding Williams’ status.

Williams, however, had not filed any paperwork with Washington compliance officers to have his name entered into the portal before making his announcement on social media.

As of now, nothing has been submitted.

Washington is prepared to pursue legal action to enforce the terms of the contract, according to a person briefed on the situation.

There have been several recent examples of schools taking issue with player transfers. After cornerback Xavier Lucas transferred from Wisconsin to Miami, Wisconsin said Lucas had entered into a “binding two-year NIL agreement” that included “substantial financial compensation” and allegedly attempted to prevent him from transferring. Georgia’s athletic department is also seeking $390,000 from former defensive end Damon Wilson II, claiming his transfer to Missouri terminated his name, image and likeness agreement with the Bulldogs’ collective.

Williams and Washington head coach Jedd Fisch share the same agent at Wasserman football.

Williams followed Fisch to Seattle two years ago after committing to Arizona out of high school. However, before signing with Fisch at Arizona, Williams initially committed to Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin in late 2022. He de-committed the following summer. Williams started the 2025 season, with Fisch not holding back the hype for his quarterback entering the season.

“I would probably say, at this age, not even 19, he’s the best player I’ve ever been around,” Fisch said on the Until Saturday podcast last spring. “… My goal from when I started recruiting him in high school, and I told him this, we’re going to partner up and find a way to be in New York City when it’s time for the Heisman.”

Williams threw for 4,009 yards and 33 touchdowns against nine interceptions while adding 893 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in 26 career games at Washington. In his first season as the starter, he passed for 3,065 yards and 25 touchdowns, earning All–Big Ten honorable mention honors.

After a four-touchdown performance in Washington’s blowout win over Boise State in the Bucked Up LA Bowl, Williams seemed poised to be one of the top quarterbacks in the Big Ten this year.

“He does have incredible potential,” Fisch said. “He’s not loud, but I would say he is vocal. He speaks softly and carries a big stick. He’s not going to yell or scream and do all those things that you necessarily would need him to do, but he leads by example. He works his tail off. He never misses anything. He’s constantly involved with the team. He knows when to take the right reps. He knows when to jump in, jump out. So all that being equal, I think his leadership skills are certainly good enough.”

Now Williams says he is moving on. Williams is entering the portal with a do-not-contact tag, according to ESPN, meaning Williams likely already has a landing spot in mind. Notable schools that are currently or could be in the quarterback market include LSU, Miami and potentially Oregon. He instantly becomes one of the top players available in the transfer market.

Washington, which played in the 2023 national championship game under Kalen DeBoer, is 15-11 under Fisch in the last two years, including 9-4 this past season. This would be a major loss for the program.

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Pivotal case. Hard to see the player as a victim.

There needs to be some kind of boundaries.

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The judicial system cut down restrictions rather than create policy. At some point there will be rules and commitments again. Obviously we don’t see NFL players sign a contract and then a week later announce they are available to go to another team.

We would already have rules, I suspect, except for the governing NCAA having no real authority. I’d like to see the football programs leave the conferences and the NCAA and form a new association. Three divisions- top 30 teams, middle 30 teams, and bottom tier of however many programs want to be in. Yearly relegation and promotion between the divisions would peak interest and maintain investment of effort and resources for programs that want to have a football team.

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