Larry on the numbers

My first impulse is to roll my eyes at this. Am I wrong?

Using statistics to say “Ball did not go in hoop” is no different than simply saying “Ball did not go in hoop.”

It’s like saying the beat team in baseball, according to saber-metrics is going to win the World Series. For the record, the top team by the metric has yet to win a World Series.


The teams who relied on analytics in the NBA outperformed those who didn’t and now they all do.

But you have to have players who can knock down open shots. Larry’s offensive design is solid, even though it’s not pretty. What’s failing us is apparently our shooting coaches are not getting the guys to improve their shooting skills.

IMO analytics takes the soul out of the sport it’s applied to, but if it works they have to use it. Some of the greatest coaches use psychology and instinct much more effectively (and for greater entertainment). Not very many true greats though.

As great of a basketball mind as Majerus was, he completely missed on something that seems so obvious now: missed three point shots bounce more unpredictability and longer off the rim than closer range shots, thus negating the effectiveness of defenders blocking out. The offense has a 50% chance of rebounding a missed three point shot, less than 25% chance at rebounding mid range shots. Mid range shots aren’t efficient, even open mid range shots.

But he would still win in today’s game because his teams would be disciplined and tough. His ability to assert authority was unmatched.

I don’t think you’re eyeroll is wrong. I do have to wonder if the team then will be like hitters in baseball. Where they eventually hit their historic average. Good hitters are good hitters, even if in a slump, eventually the slump gets broken. Bad hitters are bad hitters, even if on a hot streak. Eventually they’ll fall back to reality.

I can’t say if the team has good shooters or not. I’ve stopped paying close attention. All I can say from afar, is that the team looks bad, has hasn’t looked good a majority of LKs coaching tenure at the U.

Larry’s win/loss record disagrees with you. How many losing seasons has he had besides the first two when he was playing with the poop towel Boylen left?

Not sure how many losing seasons. But I’m looking at the team and program from afar. It doesn’t look good, it looks bad. Whether his record says otherwise has nothing to do with it looking bad. I’m not comparing the Utes to UNC, Duke, NC State, or even ECU here in NC.

I’ll give you that compared to Boylen LK is great, but that doesn’t make up for not even getting to where the program has been historically. Even before the Big Man, our BBall program was pretty good, not great, but was at least pretty good. Now? Seems otherwise. Is that due to coaching? Is that do to recruiting? Is that due to something else? I don’t know. I do know that it’s now LKs program, and there’s rarely a sniff of NCAAs or even the NIT.

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I agree. It’s time for LK to go. It’s long overdue, in my opinion

I’m not sure it’s time for him to go. Although it is time to show something approaching our historical averages. My Ute BBall memory goes back to Jerry Pimm. His teams were competitive, from what I remember. Same, mostly, under Archibald. Obviously the Big Man spoiled us all. Since then? Well it’s been tough.

I was talking with my brother about this today. What happened? We were clearly on the rise. We had good teams and good players. We competed well in the Pac-12 against some good teams. We finished in the top half of the conference for years. We had good recruiting rankings for a few classes in a row. How did we get here?

I think Larry’s fate is in the hands of our boosters. If we are still a basketball school at all, I think he’s done.

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Larry, like McNride, hit his ceiling.

I believe Jon Huntsman liked him an awful lot. If so, that could explain a lot.

I would say you are wrong if it is correct that Utah’s offense is generating open shots and those shots are simply not falling. If the offense is not generating open shots, then it is just obfuscation. I have not studied Utah games enough to know whether it is as simple as making open shots.

At one time, I was asked to take an analytical look at Utah football’s offense and what you should do on 2nd down if your first down play leaves you at 2nd and 8 or longer. At that time, when Utah faced 2nd and 8 or longer, if you could get to 3rd and 5, you had about 55% better chance of ultimately gaining a first down than you had if you ended up at 3rd and 8 or longer. The consequence of that exercise was that Lud would more often than not look to run for 5 yards on 2nd and 10 than throw a pass. Now many fans complain when Lud does that and I understand the frustration. However, the numbers support the strategy.

My point is that if the numbers tell you that the offense is generating good, open shots, that you are missing, the way to respond to that is different than if you are not generating good, open shots. I mean, how many layups can Miki miss?

Even Big Rick had three or four bad seasons.

Archibald had a losing record. Larry K is way more successful than Archibald. Larry K is above average when compared to the coaches of my lifetime, Foster, Pimm, Archibald, Majerus, Giac, Boylen.

Larry ranks 3rd out of 7.

Rick had one bad season: 1993-94 when the team was 14-14. You could argue that the Utes were average, not bad that year.

I guess I misremembered. But Larry’s .500 record last year isn’t being characterized as average.

unfortunately because of COVID circumstances I think we have to give Larry a mulligan this year. It sounds like we couldn’t move on from him if we wanted to because of $$$. Hopefully we can muddle through this season and see where we are next winter.

Just stop. You know this is about more than W/L records. None of those guys you mentioned (besides maybe big rick) were paid anywhere near what Larry is getting paid comparatively to the rest of the NCAA. If you get paid like an elite coach, and are employed by a team that belongs to a conference that is historically very respected in basketball, you should be better than just pretty good.

If Larry wanted to stay longer he should have negotiated a contract that was more in line with what he could actually accomplish.

A common theme with Larry haters is it’s not about W/L record.

Larry’s defense wins games. His teams have for the most part exceeded expectations almost every year.

Majerus’ Oh-fense isn’t efficient in today’s game. Two point shots and passing the ball around like crazy aren’t going to get the points per possession necessary to win games in today’s game.

Larry’s offense is ugly, but it’s what is statistically successful, which is why his teams do better than expected every year.

Larry’s salary is irrelevant, that’s in the past. The question for Larry haters is do you have anyone that will do better? No. Haven’t seen one single legitimate suggestion.