Utah is in a unique position in that they lose the 2 team tiebreaker with either Oregon or Washington, but they win a 3-way tie based on step 4 strength of schedule.
First you need to beat Colorado,
Oregon needs to lose to Oregon State
Washington needs to beat Wazzu, or Utah loses the 2 team tiebreaker to Oregon.
Lastly UCLA needs to beat Cal, Or the 3-way tie is broken with Utah/Wash beating Oregon State, but Oregon having lost. Then the 2-way tie breaker goes to Washington.
- With a UCLA win, both Oregon State/UCLA have the same record, all 3 schools are 1-1 against the 2 teams combined. So 3-team tiebreaker is still deadlocked.
I would love to see Utah win the tiebreaker, Cam Rising light up the score board against USC and another Rose Bowl berth to likely play Penn State! Plus I don’t think a multi-team tiebreaker has ever been won by the team that would lose a 2-team tiebreaker to either opponent.
I played some math games this morning and came up with between 21 and 22% Here were my assumptions.
Utah over CU: 90%
OSU over Oregon: 40% (at best)
UW over Wazzu: 60%
Multiply them together and you get 21.6%. All these odds were pulled out of my backside ahead of church this morning, and therefore are subject to scrutiny and debate.
This . Beat Colorado. Don’t drink any Koolaid and hope we get into a bowl with a nice location and an opponent we will get credit for beating. We have 3 losses in a year when 3-4 other teams in our conference are solid. And we have holes. I’d rather plug them and play well in the Holiday Bowl than dream of Roses and end up in the gasparilla bowl this year.
I am a true fan but I am also trying to live in the reality of what I saw against all three okay teams we played on the road…
My wife just updated Utah’s odds using ESPN’s odds for all four pertinent games and came up with a 13.8% chance of us making the CCG. Long, but not crazy odds. We won’t cancel the plane and hotel just yet.
I’d be okay with a nice win at the Holiday Bowl this year.
Petco Park is stunningly beautiful.
I had a blast in Vegas and Pasadena last year, but San Diego is a nice doable trip for most.
I’m a little prejudiced though.
. Beat Colorado. Don’t drink any Koolaid and hope we get into a bowl with a nice location and an opponent we will get credit for beating. We have 3 losses in a year when 3-4 other teams in our conference are solid. And we have holes. I’d rather plug them and play well in the Holiday Bowl than dream of Roses and end up in the gasparilla bowl this year.