So I’m giving Operaman a bit of a breather - and while that is happening, my frank assessment of what is going on.
First off, let us not forget how parallel Smith’s first season was to Larry’s. Whatever rumors you may believe about the arrival of Larry, the fact was every impact player left and he was left picking up scraps to form a team that really wasn’t a D-1 program. Similarly, Smith failed to retain the guys who have gone on to be starters and solid contributors at a solid program.
Also similarly, unlike Giac and Boylen, Larry’s teams and Craig’s team haven’t quit and played hard throughout the season.
I am concerned right now though because we are not seeing any promising players committing to the program. Maybe they’ve got a transfer portal strategy going on, but as it appears right now, we aren’t anywhere near being close to righting the ship.
Some favorable things I’ve seen with Smith is what he has done at previous schools and the fact that his former players followed him here. But can he recruit? I dunno. It seemed a lot of Larry’s players couldn’t get away from him fast enough… and it wasn’t our scrub players either.
And finally some definitions and commentary on what Operaman said: Defining ‘making the tournament’ consistently in my mind means that making it 2 out of 4 years should easily be in the realm of possibilities at the U. But even if we said 1 out of 4 years, Larry didn’t meet that goal. Making it to the tournament 2 out of 10 tries, and only making it to ANY post season 5/10 times.
Yes, I do believe that Utah can do better than that. Plus we’ve dumped a lot of money into salaries, facilities, renovating the JMHC and more, all indicating we are serious about basketball here. And a notion that somehow we can’t be consistent competitors in the PAC-12 I also believe is false - there is no reason we (as a school overall) can’t be in the top half and even top 4 consistently. I’m not expecting to be Gonzaga, but if you can succeed at Gonzaga, you can succeed anywhere, literally.
So, what are my expectations? Similar to Larry’s actually - I was willing to give him a pass his first year (where he went 6-25) and even his second year where he was about on par with what we did this season (15-18), but things need to be on a clear trajectory in season 3. That means having recruited some players who we believe can develop into winning seasons. By year four I expect to be in the tournament. Going forward at that point I would expect that we would be in the top half of the conference 3 out of 4 years, and in the tournament 1-2 out of 4 years.
But really, am I wrong and unreasonable to want to be in the tournament 3 out of 4 years? The PAC-12 shouldn’t be a 2 or 3 bid league.
And to recap, that is what Larry got:
Y1- Throwaway year
Y2- Losing season
Y3- NIT first round exit, tied for 9th in the PAC-12
Y4 - NCAA Sweet 16 and tied for 2nd in the PAC-12
Y5 - NCAA first round exit and 2nd place in the PAC-12
Nothing much after that despite some hefty raises and contract extensions. We had a losing season and 8th place his last two years and constant player exoduses.
Operaman you demanded that we hold Smith to the same standard we did Krystkowiak, so that is my demand - winning record year 3, and tournament by year 4. And also, I think when it comes to basketball I do believe that Utah should be consistently better than ASU, Cal, Oregon State, Washington State, Washington, Stanford and Colorado, and should be in the mix with the rest from time to time. I’m not expecting us to be Arizona or UCLA. But if football has proven nothing else, why the hell not?