Showing up at 13 in the first CFP rankings gives fans and the team a hope for the CFP if the Utes win out and some other dominoes fall into place. It is possible that the Utes could move into the CFP by winning out and the teams ahead of them losing. However, Utah plays no ranked teams moving forward and while Baylor, KSU and Kansas are not terrible, beating them is not going to give us a big boost. The likely winner of the ACC (either Virginia or Miami) are both behind us in the CFP rankings and will jump ahead of us. IMO, unless something unbelievable happens, our only shot at the CFP is to win out and get to the CCG and win it.
So, what is the best scenario to get to CCG? Win out and swallow hard and hope BYU wins out leaving Utah, Tech, Cinn., ASU and Houston all tied with 2 losses. Somebody posted that if that happens Utah wins whatever tiebreaker they use.
We cheer for the Utes and demand that all future Utah/BYU games be played the last weekend of the season. Could you imagine what that game would be like this year if the Utes win out and BYU is undefeated or even 1 loss.
I rematch with either BYU or TTU would be nice on a neutral field, even if both would likely have more fans there (Lubbock and DFW bases). I think the easiest path is a 3 or more way tie at 7-2 conference record with BYU 9-0 or 8-1 with a win over TTU, but there are other ways as we are favorable in almost all tiebreakers except a direct h2h with our two conf. loss foes.
I have a Tue-Thu work trip in DFW that week, so hoping they get in and I’ll stay and go to the game with my nephew who lives there. Went to PAC12 CCG in Vegas with him and beat Oregon, so he’s good luck.
A 10-2 (7-2) non-CCG Utah would need 3-4 teams above to lose and drop below - as mentioned, the ACC champ will probably jump up into the top-10. You really have to be top-10 to get at large with the G5 taking a spot and either the Big12 or ACC champ maybe being 11, 12 … A 3-loss SEC team could still be above a 10-2 Utah (9-3 non-CCG or 10-3 CCG loser, but both participants might be 1-loss, so loser would be 11-2).
Making the CCG may not make any difference. If the Utes can win their last three games convincingly, they’ll almost certainly end up high enough in the CFP rankings. Crazy.
We need to hand out three more curb stompings to stay in the discussion. With two of those games being on the road against teams who tend toward playing like world beaters in their houses, it’s going to be a very tall order. It’s doable, but it is not going to be easy.
Utah wins out they are in. There is a scenario where the Big 1G gets less teams than the Big XII and I am praying to all religions for that scenario for maximum schadenfreude.
Also, I need Indiana to win the Big 1G. I have Buckeyes in the Rose fatigue.
“This is the week I’m charging the committee with, let’s look at the big picture,” McShay said (01:24:28). “ Let’s actually get real this week. And think for the most part they’ve done a good job, but I think they’re missing the boat on the Big 12.The Big 12 is just not. They’re just not."
Just not? Just not what? IMO looks like McShay is just doing this for ragebait/clickbait crap. As we know, most talking heads are no smarter than a pixelated Max Headroom.
He’s a clickbait shill who probably has GPT write his hack articles.
That being said I doubt any of the three teams would make it past the first game. Also ranking teams based on university name and money (aka ND) is odious and we need something objective to determine who gets in not just a new version of an eye test that always involves TV Money.
I’m just rooting for BYU and Miami to both loose regardless and I’m happy if the Utes make 10-2 and go to a solid after Christmas bowl.
That and they really want Miami in, even though it’s unlikely they will make the ACC CCG. In all honesty, BYU should be 8 or 9 with ND below.
Unless Alabama loses to Auburn (unlikely), ND to Stanford (very improbable), BYU to UCF (unlikely), OU to LSU (possible?), and Miami to Pitt, we ain’t getting in as an at large. Heck, they might jump Vandy over us to get that 5th SEC team in.
We have a 1.7% chance of winning the conference per espn fpi (~6% chance of making it to the CCG based on Massey), and apparently an 8.2% chance of making the CFP (espn fpi). Both quite low.
But, if you want a list, cheer for:
Utah to win
ASU to win
TTU to lose (cheer for WVU)
BYU to win (those 4 get us into the CCG; if BYU loses, it’s ASU v TTU)
Ohio St. win (removes any possible UM maneuvering to be a 4th B1G team)
Tenn win (knocks Vandy possibilities out)
Auburn win (knocks Alabama out of CCG and likely CFP, but they will still want to make room for a 9-3 SEC team …)
Pitt win (knocks Miami out)
Stanford win (knocks ND out)
LSU win (maybe knocks OU out, but again, they will see to it that 5 SEC teams are in)
SEC (likely 5 teams): locks = TAMU, UGA, Ole Miss. Alabama at 10-2 would go to CCG (so 11-2 or 10-3) and in. 10-2 OU would be in. If either falters (9-3), the committee could put in a 10-2 Vandy. If both falter, that would be great, but you know they will pull the 9-3 SEC > 10-2 anyone else. B1G (likely 3 teams): locks = Ohio St., Indiana, Oregon (even at 10-2, but I think BYU resume is better …) ACC (1 team): locks = CCG champion will be 11 seed. SMU? Most likely is SMU v UVA. Miami is ranked higher but at 10-2 (but what about ND win?!) should be one of the last teams out. Sorry, not sorry G5 (1 team): Tulane? JMU? whomever, they will be 12 seed Big12 (1-2 teams, should be 2-3): locks = TTU (11-1 non-CCG or 12-1, 13-0 CCG all in). BYU can be 10-2 (miss CCG to ASU), 11-2 (CCG loss) or 12-1 (CCG win). If they get to 11 wins, they should be in. Utah at 10-2 likely 2nd one out unless chaos happens. Utah at 10-3 or 11-2 (v BYU in CCG) has more of a chance to squeeze in, but 10-3 would need 2-3 losses in teams ranked above to get to a 3-bid league. Indy ND, but should be pushed out vs any 11-win team (e.g. BYU).
The PFF College Football Show did have another more complicated path to the CCG if BYU loses, if it helps those of you like me that don’t ever cheer for them. As a realist they’ll likely win. It is the ASU and TTech games that need to go our way in either scenario:
I don’t think Tech will lose to WVU, but I also didn’t think that Utah was going to play in the 2022 Pac-12 championship in Vegas against USC when there were 4 games that had to go our way the final week of the season. My point was more that there is still a very unlikely scenario that the Utes can make it to the championship game even if BYU loses. Of the 2 unlikely scenarios that would be my preference, so I’ll personally be pulling for all those teams that need to win after Utah hopefully takes care of business against the Jayhawks.
I’ll also be pulling for some of the upsets needed outside of the big-12 to push down the teams ahead or right behind the Utes in the CFP rankings, as unlikely as some of those outcomes are. It makes for an entertaining weekend of college football if there’s some chaos to end the regular season.
