They wouldn’t shift those guys
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Fair enough, but back when they were playing hitting coaches taught the technique to hit it to all fields. Now they don’t.
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The limit of two pickoff attempts will be interesting to watch… A third attempt will be a balk. So after two attempts the runner can now take a huge lead without the risk of being picked off. It seems to me that pitchers will also now be more cautious about attempting pickoffs, not wanting to use up their limit of two. The result will be shorter games but also more stolen bases. I guess the rule-makers decided that would be OK.
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Could you imagine Ricky Henderson playing with the two pickoff throws rule? He and Lou Brock would’ve shredded the record books.
Here is a portion of the entry today from Joe Ponanski’s substack after the first weekend of new rules.
Wow, what an interesting time in baseball! Early interest seems up, game times are way down and everybody’s scurrying to figure out what all of it means. Although, look, we’re only four days into the season, so we don’t even know anything yet.
But when has that stopped us before? As part of our April Madness, let’s go around baseball, and begin with a look at how the new rules are changing the game in real-time.
## The new rules good news
Time of game is WAY down (and pace of play is WAY up):
On Sunday, only one game — the White Sox and Astros — lasted three hours. That’s just stunning. The average time of game on Sunday was 2 hours and 36 minutes, and for the season, it’s 2 hours and 40 minutes. SEVENTY-FIVE percent of games are going less than three hours. We have not had a four-hour game yet, or really anything close. The longest game of the season so far is the Blue Jays’ 10-9 victory over the Cardinals on Opening Day — it went three hours and 38 minutes, but there was also a delay in there.
As far as the speed of the game, the clock is probably working even better than Rob Manfred and Theo Epstein and the rest had hoped.
Balls in play are turning into hits more often
Obviously it’s too early to make any definitive conclusions, but batting average on balls in play is .301, the highest it has been since 2007. Considering that it’s April and the weather isn’t great and pitchers tend to start seasons ahead of the hitters (the league BABIP in April last year was a death-defying .282), it’s a pretty good sign that the banning of the shift is having a real effect.
Stolen bases are way up
There have been 70 stolen bases in just 100 games, that’s up 37% from last year. And the stolen base percentage is mind-boggling
— runners have an 83% success rate so far. I think you can chalk this up to two things: The rule that limits the number of times a pitcher can step off without risking a balk (twice) and a determination by teams to turn the stolen base into an offensive weapon again after years of neglect.
In fact, this is the way in baseball. The stolen base was a massive weapon during Deadball, and it stayed that way into the late 1920s. Hardly anybody even tried to steal bases in the 1950s. Maury Wills got a lot of credit for bringing the stolen base back in the 1960s, but it really wasn’t until the 1970s, when Astroturf reigned and managers like Whitey Herzog went all in on speed, that the stolen base had its second heyday. Then the stolen base went somewhat into hibernation once home runs began flying out of parks like never before.
Now, while everyone is trying to figure out what the new rules mean, stealing a base once again seems like a good and relatively safe opportunity to make something happen. We’ll see how it plays out once everybody starts making adjustments.
## The new rules not-so-good news
The actual number of balls in play is not going in the right direction
It’s April, again, so take it all with a grain of salt. But so far, balls in play are down. Why? Strikeouts are a bit up and walks are WAY up. There is a theory out there — most often presented by our friend Joe Sheehan — that the banning of the shift will harden the approach of those three-outcome, pull-heavy hitters and, alas, will lead to more strikeouts, more walks, more home runs and a less action-packed game.
I think we have to seriously consider that theory … but at least so far I don’t actually buy it. I think pull-heavy hitters have been the norm since the dawn of the game — Ted Williams pulled EVERYTHING, for crying out loud — and with an actual hole between the first and second basemen, there’s real incentive now to make more contact. I never expected that the new rules would solve the game’s strikeout issue. I think that will come down to, in some way, limiting the number of pitchers teams can use. But I don’t think the new rules should make the problem worse. We will keep an eye on it.
There might be an underground movement among players to rebel
During Sunday Night Baseball’s game between Philadelphia and Texas (what a weird choice that was for the first Sunday night game), ESPN sort of stumbled into an in-game interview with the injured Bryce Harper. I don’t think they were expecting it, based on the announcers’ reaction, but most of the interview was pretty standard stuff. Harper’s swinging at overhand pitching. He thinks his recovery is going pretty well. He knows there are numerous hurdles still to clear. Etc.
But then they asked him if he was rehabbing with the new pitch clock in mind, and Harper went on kind of a weird tangent that didn’t 100% make sense but did include him saying, essentially, that players want their game back.
You could tell that the ESPN crew had no idea what to do with that because there were a couple of seconds of awkward silence. And later, Karl Ravech went back to Harper and asked what he meant by players wanting their game back, and Harper said, “I don’t remember,” and everybody laughed, and that was the unfortunate end of that. Mike Wallace, they were not.
My guess: I think some players (maybe even a lot of players) are pretty upset with the new rules — specifically the clock. They feel rushed. They feel off-balance. They miss their old routines and practiced rhythms, and it drives them crazy that an umpire will slap an automatic strike or automatic ball on them for just playing the game the way they did last year and the year before that and, well, all their lives.
I get it. I really do.
But I’d also say this: Left to their own devices, the players turned baseball into an often long and sometimes interminable staring contest. I don’t blame them — players will and should use every advantage within the rules — but for two decades now, the league has tried in the goofiest ways to speed up the game (eliminating the four-pitch intentional walk but certainly not cutting into commercial time), and it has consistently gone the wrong way.
The clock has changed the game, no question about it. And, yes, I’d argue, that this pace is so much better for fans. The game feels crisper, there’s more energy … and while it might feel like warp speed to the players themselves, it still feels leisurely to many of us fans watching on television or in the seats. I can get why some players would want to rise up, but l really hope they let this play out for a few weeks.
In the end, hey, I don’t know exactly what Bryce Harper meant or if players even will push back. But I hope they realize that, despite what Bryce said, it’s not just THEIR game. The game belongs to all of us.
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MLB was getting to the point of being unwatchable simply because the games were dragging on way too long. These new rules will help get the games back into something that is easier to sit through.
The bigger bases look ridiculous. It’s like Mike Lindell cut a deal to supply those. I get they said they will help reduce lower leg injuries, but they still look odd as hell.
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Well, not quite. If they’ve already thrown twice, you would think the runner would take a huge leadoff. But too much and the pitcher will throw them out. On that 3rd one, it’s only a balk IF they don’t get them out. It’s a risk, but the runner can’t go much further or they become a tempting target.
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Thanks, what I read really didn’t tell me that part of the rule. I guess that’s better.
It will be interesting to see how that third pick off attempt goes when the pitching clock comes into play. Will the pitchers get shook if it’s late in the clock and the runner is extending his lead off as the clock winds down. I think I like it!
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A follow up from Posnanski.
I can’t get out of my head that Sunday Night Baseball interview with Bryce Harper. I’ve mentioned how during the interview he talked about players wanting to “take their game back,” which seemed a swipe at the new rules, though he didn’t really follow up on it. But what I didn’t mention was just how bored Harper seemed with the whole thing. He looked like he was doing the interview because he lost a bet. I mean, no, I’m not expecting the guy to be Dick Vitale or anything like that, but he might have shown just a little bit of life. I mean, this was baseball’s showcase game. Bryce presumably wants fans to watch baseball and enjoy it. I mean, can you show a little of that?
I think back to the famous scene in “Bull Durham” where Crash Davis was teaching Nuke Laloosh how to do interviews so that they’re as boring as possible.
Nuke: I #&$^# love winning. You hear what I’m saying? It’s like better than losing? … Teach me something new, man, I need to learn.*
Crash: Well, you got something to write with? Good. It’s time to work on your interviews.
Nuke: My interviews? What do I gotta do?
Crash: You have to learn your clichés. You’re going to have to study them, you’re going to have to know them. They’re your friends. Write this down, “We gotta play them one day at a time.”
Nuke [writing]: Gotta … play … it’s pretty boring.
Crash: Of course it’s boring, that’s the point. Write it down.
Nuke [writing]: one … day … at a time.
Crash: I’m just happy to be here. Hope I can help the ballclub. [Nuke looks at him disbelievingly]. I know. Just write it down.
I always loved that scene and still do … but being honest, I think it fully represents what’s kind of a problem for baseball. Players are rarely themselves. There’s little-to-no value in being yourself, in saying anything of value, in showing actual human emotions. On Monday, Milwaukee’s rookie Brice Turang played second base for the Brewers. Brice Turang was drafted out of high school in 2018, his father played in the big leagues, his mother was a softball star at Long Beach State, he grew up in a crazy athletic family (all four of his sisters were Division I athletes), he worked his way through the minor leagues, playing in Helena and Zebulon and Appleton and Biloxi and Nashville, and finally he’s here in the big leagues, and he blasts his first big-league home run, and it was a grand slam, and it was during the Milwaukee Brewers’ home opener, and his family went nuts about it, and his teammates went nuts about it, and this is what he said:
“I’m just taking it pitch by pitch. … I just try to go up there, compete every pitch, and win us a ballgame. … Just trying to produce for our team.”
I don’t blame him at all for saying it that way; players have it hammered into them to talk that way. But I think there was a lot more bubbling inside Brice Turang, and you just wish he would have felt free to share those feelings with the rest of us.
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From Tom Tango, a review of the Gibson vs. Eck at bat in view of the new timing and pick-off rules.
http://tangotiger.com/index.php/site/article/rewatching-gibson-eck-with-the-pitch-timer
SNIP
And for 7 glorious minutes, we have what is for many people the greatest baseball event ever. And those 14 plays in 7 minutes was in full compliance of the non-existent pitch timer.
Edited to say, this was the worst baseball event ever for me. Several angels died because Tommy Lasorda was so happy.
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As I grew up a Reds fan and Cincy and LA battled for National League Western Division supremacy in many of the 70s seasons, I’ve never been a Dodgers fan, but Gibson’s dinger (with him barely able to hobble around the bases) is certainly among the most memorable moments in all of baseball history.
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So I figured out a way to guarantee a win for your team in Major League Baseball. Just have them play the Oakland A’s.
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Happily, that seems to be working for my Cubbies. Not that I really expect much out of the Cubs this season. Which may be more telling about the A’s than the Cubs.
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Sweet little story about David Wright of the Mets meeting a bartender wearing his jersey.
The Oakland A’s, who are difficult enough to root for as it is, are now rumored to be moving to Las Vegas, which will make it nigh impossible to remain a fan. I think I might be looking for a new team to attach myself to, any ideas? The Seattle Mariners make sense, since we live here, but they don’t seem to perform a whole lot better than the A’s. Anyone interested in delivering an advertising pitch for a new team? Just as long as it isn’t the Yankees, Astros, Braves or Dodgers, I’m willing to listen.
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I’ll bite on a pitch. Before anyone laughs, let me sell you on the Baltimore Orioles. Yes, we were also pretty unwatchable for many years but their top picks are now starting to get into the majors and are doing great. Adley Rutschman was called up last season and is already a top 5 catcher in the league. They’ve got a bunch of scrappy players and are just fun to watch and follow. Bonus too is no one would ever accuse you of being a bandwagon Oriole fan lol
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They’re not too terribly far from us, 6hrs depending upon traffic. Run into similar distances for Atlanta or Nationals.
Although, I am a Cubbies fan. I have no idea why, I’ve followed them since I was a freshman at the U, for zero logical reason.
I do kinda pay attention to the Orioles, proximity mostly. Doesn’t hurt that I like the Ravens, so city affiliation too.
I need a Jays fan to commiserate with me. Do it.
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I’m just hoping this baseball group trying to bring a team to SLC can work a miracle.
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