I don’t disagree but if they play in the championship game, that’d be a repeat 4 weeks later. Great new pro stadium instead of aging Alamodome. Ok and probably attended better due to proximity though. SoFi stadium actually seems like it’d be fun, but hoping we don’t fall to 6th pick.
I am really looking forward to the Stanford game, and for that matter, every remaining game this season. After our 1-2 start, it seemed like 2021 was not going to be Utah’s year, but here we are, within reach of a possible Rose Bowl.
The fact that we might finish 3-1, and STILL have a shot at the Rose Bowl is remarkable.
I went to the Rose Bowl in 2007, and can tell you there are not many better places or times to watch a football game. Pasadena at that time of year is delightful, especially coming from cold and often dark and dreary Salt Lake. The stadium is old, a monument to the early years of this great sport, with enough nostalgia to make the trip worth it on its own. I remember the disappointment of knowing that Utah, had no real possibility of playing there one day.
Then PACMAS happened and suddenly, it was a possibility, albeit still a bit of a dream; we would have to be able to beat the likes of USC, Stanford, Washington, Oregon, etc. Slowly, we started beating those teams, and now, here we are, again, only a few games away from something that 14 years ago would not have been even a reasonable fantasy.
Stanford will be a challenge, but Utah certainly can, and should win this game. The Arizona and Colorado games should be wins, but I’ll still be a bit nervous with each only because we have inexplicably lost contests like these in the past. Oregon will be the biggest challenge for the remainder of this regular season, but the game is at home, and there is nothing about the matchup that feels out or reach.
Winning the south is a good possibility after which, depending upon other outcomes, we could win or possibly even lose the conference championship and still play in Pasadena on New Year’s day.
No guarantees of anything at this point, but with the possibilities that are in place, I’m REALLY looking forward to watching each game, hoping for a win each week, and keeping this dream alive.
Go UTES!
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Thanks for pointing me to this thread DataUte. I would like to add that I think Utah will most likely NOT go to the Vegas bowl as their seems to be a caveat that the CCG runner-up cannot also play in the Vegas bowl:
Pac-12 Football: 2021 bowl lineup represents a noticeable upgrade
I understand why that clause was put in place, but kind of a bummer in my book.
BYU_Fan’s Projection is Utah is likely going to ROSE, with Holiday bowl as the next most likely destination. (Assuming Alamo will likely snag Arizona State who has never been before)
P.S. I am assuming this article explains Pac12 bowl selection accurately:
The Pac-12 bowl selection process, explained - CougCenter
That’s a good catch. Yes, there is a wide range of possibilities. It would be a little disheartening to drop from the Rose to the Alamo to Holiday under certain circumstances.
Utah - hope we end conf with 8-1 or 7-2 record (loss to Oregon on 11/20). If we are 8-1, we have to win CCG to go to the Rose. Otherwise, it opens up some weird pecking/choosing order stuff.
ASU will lose twice more (@UW, @OSU most likely) - 5-4 conf, 7-5 overall
OSU will lose at least once more (likely @Oregon) - 6-3 conf, 8-4 overall
Wazzu has 1 or 2 more losses (@Oregon, @UW) - 5-4 conf, 6-6 overall
UCLA might lose to USC. Let’s say they win though - 6-3 conf, 8-4 overall
UW loses another 1 or 2 (Oregon) - 6-3, 7-5 overall
Let’s say Oregon beats us twice. They go CFP (?) and Rose takes next highest CFP ranked PAC12 team. Would any be ranked? If not, Rose chooses between between 7-2 (8-5 overall) CCG runner-up vs. 6-3 OSU/UCLA/UW. Would they take the home team? Not sure. For the next Bowl, Alamo, they would have to choose between Utah, OSU/UCLA (could jump us since they are within 1 win). Still think they would take Utah. But they could take someone else and we don’t get Vegas (were in CCG) and drop to Holiday. That’s a lot of ifs.
If we beat Oregon then lose in CCG, we are 8-1 in conference (remember CCG doesn’t count) so we are 2 wins higher then anyone else, so I think whatever is the next bowl (likely Alamo as Oregon would not make CFP and go to Rose) HAS to take us.
Rose is going to get an overall 2 loss Oregon (11-2), a 3,4,or 5 loss Utah (10-3, 9-4, 8-5), or a 4 loss OSU/UCLA (8-4). Probably against either Michigan St. or Ohio St.
I’m hoping we just win out :). Each week will start narrowing the options. At the same time, I wouldn’t mind Alamo as I’d love to take my daughter who was born there and spend a little time reconnecting with some people there. Since Vegas is out and Holiday likely a long shot, either outcome seems pretty good (to me).
Yes and no. That’s from 2015 (so obviously the bowls and order have changed) but generally the approach is right. There are a few nuances or caveats that have been added, but the main one that stays the same is that conference record (w/o CCG) is used and bowls can’t pick someone with more than 1 fewer win than an unselected team above.
I agree. Looking ahead is fun, but each game has been really enjoyable (well, sometimes nerve-wracking at times). But I have been able to enjoy the journey and see this team mature and gain experience. And actually score a lot :).
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I think the thing that changed the most this week is that Oregon, even if winning out, is not a lock for CFP. Other highly ranked teams also struggled (except UGA and Mich) or lost, but it’s easy to see how this is going to go:
- SEC will have UGA (win or lose championship). Alabama is in with win in CCG. Might even be in at #4 with a loss depending on other teams
- Big10 winner will be in. Ohio St. has the chance to almost ‘cancel’ the Oregon loss with wins over Mich St. and Mich and CCG. People will say that Ohio St. is a different team (could be possible) while Oregon didn’t get that much better. If Mich or Mich St. wins out, there could be some argument (better argument for Mich with ‘good’ loss to Mich St.) and they might vie for the 4th spot (see below)
- Big12 winner, if OU, will likely be in - OU has Baylor, Iowa St., and Bedlam (2, 3, 4 in conference) to improve their SOS and then will play one again in their CCG. Oklahoma St. maybe could sneak in if they win out (lost ot Iowa St. 24-21).
- ACC is outside looking in this year
- Which brings us to Oregon. If Oregon is 12-1, they are vying for that 4th spot with 11-2 Alabama (lets say they lose CCG), 13-0 Cinci, or perhaps a 12-1 non-Ohio St. Big10 team. Oregon would have an early season win against Ohio St., yes, and the win over Fresno St. (who lost big to Boise St.), and 2 wins over Utah (by virtue of beating us twice would likely move us out of the top 25 at that point) and a bad loss to a terrible Stanford (who Utah beat big). Also, by beating WSU, it further solidifies WSU as a mediocre team (rather than being a good win). So, it just doesn’t look like a good resume.
Long way of saying - Utah needs to win the CCG to get the Rose Bowl.
Utah’s magic number is 1 [edit: 2, ASU hasn’t lost yet 
]. With UA and CU, we have an easier end to the season (UO likely has the toughest last 3 games).
In addition to Utah and Oregon, WSU controls their own destiny. If they beat Oregon (and win out), they go to CCG. FPI has this at 13% chance. I still think ASU loses once on the road, moving their conference record down so they don’t jump Utah in picking scenarios.
I have Utah beating Oregon at home. FPI and other computer rankings put Utah as #1 in the PAC12 (ranked in the teens). Since most weight recency, this team is so much better than at the beginning of the season (no duh). I still think Brewer seemed to be the right call to bring experience to a young team (and why else bring him in?), but man, the what if’s of Rising (starting) and Thomas (fumbilitis) finding themselves earlier in the season … the losses to top 25 BYU and SDSU don’t look as bad either. I think right now we are playing like a 15 team but the season so far probably is in the 20-25 range (hope to enter CFP rankings this week around 23 - they have to start thinking about making the CCGs look good with 2 ranked teams ).
My projections:
- Rose: Utah (8-1, 10-3)
- Alamo: Oregon (8-1, 10-3)
If Oregon wins CCG, I project them to the Rose (8,1, 11-2) and Utah to Alamo (8-1, 9-4) - no one skipping over them - Vegas: ASU (6-3, 8-4) - neither Utah or Oregon could go to this bowl anyway.
- Holiday: UCLA (5,4,7-5)
- Sun: WSU (5-4, 6-6)
- LA: Ore St. (4-5, 6-6)
I might have things a little off as I think in these scenarios, UW would be 5-4, 6-6. But, whatever. I’m really only interested in the top and where Utah lands.
I don’t see the PAC12 having a good bowl record, reinforcing the narrative that it is a weak conference. Ugh.
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I thought it was 3 going into this weekend, and the Stanford win dropped it to 2. I.E. I’m order to clinch, we would still need ASU to lose if we best UA.
I may have misunderstood though.
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Oh yeah, that’s right. I was getting ahead of myself hoping ASU loses. I’ll correct.
The probability is 98.3% of us winning the South (FPI). Scum Devils have a 1.6% chance, so things would have to go VERY wrong for us (lose to Oregon AND either UA or CU) for us and really right for them (win @UW, @Ore St., UA)
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Not ranked in the new AP poll. Kinda thought we might sneak in at the bottom, but not yet. Ranked 29th, basically, so probably won’t get in next week either.
The AP and Coaches Polls are literally irrelevant.
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Starting to learn the game and how certain teams are protected by narratives. Oregon won a close one in the rain on the road against a fierce rival with a top defense who is just a little down this year in a rebuild, so that was ok to not whip them. Case closed, nothing to see here, moving on …
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One more week. Only a little more clarity. I sure with UW had held off ASU’s late surge. We would be buying PAC12 CCG tickets today.
- Utah wins CCG and we are Rose bowl bound. We control our fate. Magic number is 1 to get to CCG (but would stink backdooring in at 7-5 coupled with an ASU loss). Magic number is 1 in the CCG
. No game is a gimme, we have to and want to earn it (as we learned and if we have to depend on beating CU, even with a 95% probability of winning at home, makes me nervous). - Oregon wins out and they look well positioned for the CFP (but they could end up 5th in the final cut - who knows), opening up Utah to go to the Rose Bowl as a replacement. This likely happens if Utah is 9-4 or 8-5 unless ASU wins out and is 9-3. ASU could be picked over an 8-5 Utah team (probably not a 9-4 Utah team unless the CCG is embarrassing).
- Oregon St. plays a key role - if they beat ASU, we are in the CCG no matter what. If ASU wins, they solidify ‘3rd place’ and OSU drops into the pool of middle teams. If we beat Oregon and Oregon St. wins the Civil War, there is a 3-way tie at 6-3 in the North with WSU. Oregon St. > Oregon, Oregon > WSU, WSU > OSU. I don’t know what the next tie break is - probably highest rank, so Oregon might get in no matter what? Or maybe they’ll just send UW as a makeup from last year .
I don’t really care about the lower bowls, so focusing on Utah, Oregon, and maybe ASU and WSU/Ore St. Based on conference records, appears ASU will likely be in the ‘best of the rest’ non-CCG teams while there will be a lot of teams with 5-4 and 4-5 conference records (7-5, 6-6 overall) to fill in the other bowls. USC might need the postponed Cal game to become bowl eligible (although they are slight favorites in their 3 remaining games - I hope they beat BYU but not confident they can stop the run). With their performance and an interim coach, I don’t think they are as attractive to bowls this year.
A couple scenarios (I think I’ve captured the main ones in order of probability):
- Utah wins CCG (53% chance) → Utah to Rose, Oregon to Alamo, ASU to Vegas, WSU/Ore St. to Holiday
- Utah wins out but loses to Oregon in CCG (45%) → Oregon to Rose, Utah to Alamo, ASU to Vegas, WSU/Ore St. to Holiday
- Oregon wins out (15%) (Utah makes CCG and beats CU, ASU loses to OSU or UA (54%)) → Oregon to CFP (FPI has 5% because OU is ranked 19 there, but the committee seems to favor putting them in - currently #3), Utah to Rose, ASU to Alamo, WSU/Ore St. to Vegas
- Oregon wins out (15%) but doesn’t get a CFP bid (Utah makes CCG and beats CU, ASU loses to OSU or UA (54%)) → Oregon to Rose, Utah to Alamo, ASU to Vegas, WSU/Ore St. to Holiday
- Oregon wins out (15%) (Utah makes CCG and beats CU, ASU wins out (46%)) → Oregon to CFP, ASU to Rose (maybe, this would suck), WSU/Ore St. to Vegas, Utah to Holiday (Utah can’t go to Vegas per conference rules about CCG/Vegas Bowl)
- Utah loses out (2%) → no CCG. If Oregon makes CFP, we could still get Alamo (6-3 conf record, ASU to Rose?). If Oregon to Rose, we could still go to Vegas (ASU to Alamo). We could also drop to Holiday, Sun, etc. if 5-4 teams are picked ahead. Let’s not dwell much time here. It’s depressing no matter where we play.
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Well, UW played themselves out of a bowl. USC has to win 2 out of 3 (UCLA not looking good, BYU, Cal) and Cal would have to win out (Stanford, UCLA, USC). So even if everything plays out, only 1 more team (USC OR Cal) can become bowl eligible. Likely neither do, so there will be 6 (Oregon, WSU, OSU from North; Utah, ASU, UCLA from South)
Much clearer now.
- Utah wins CCG, Rose
- Utah loses CCG, Alamo*
*there are a few funky scenarios where theoretically we could be picked lower. This only happens IF we lose to CU. If we are 7-2 in conference and lose the CCG, the Alamo could pick a 6-3 team (ASU or a non-CCG Oregon/WSU/OSU [see below] would he possible). I don’t think the bowl would, but they could (they will remeber our lackluster 2019 performance against Texas). We would be 8-5, those other teams would be 8-4 or 7-5. Let’s be 8-1 in conference and the 1st team to beat all South opponents in the same year. Let’s beat whomever represents the North.
We won’t know who we play in CCG until the ‘Civil War’ is over:
- Oregon wins, they are in at 7-2 (10-2)
- Oregon St. wins, WSU beats UW, WSU is in at 6-3 (7-5). Oregon drops to 6-3 (but a still appealing 9-3 overall with ‘name’)
- Oregon St. wins, WSU loses, OSU is in at 6-3 (8-4)
Again, if we beat CU, we get Rose with a CCG win and Alamo without. With a CU loss and chaos above, it could be: WSU Rose, Oregon Alamo, ASU Vegas (CCG participants won’t go to Vegas bowl), Utah Holiday, OSU Sun, UCLA LA. That would suck. Beat CU! Win CCG!
I want a rematch with the Beavs. We have a score to settle.
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I heartily agree, bring on the Beavs. I think beaver hats would look wonderful on the players.
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Rooting for a UTES win, a Beavs win, and a Cougs loss next weekend.
CCG - Rooting for a UTES win.
Rose Bowl - Rooting for a UTES win.
After the Rose Bowl - realizing every player and coach on this team is going to totally lose it for a week celebrating the win, but mourning their friends.
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Another reason to want the Rose Bowl - it’s Jan 1, 2022
On the 142 wins tribute film, 1 guy said that as a family, they have been involved in 21 of the 23 bowl games Utah has played in so let’s make #22 the Rose. I think that includes Fred to capture the '92 amd '93 bowl games (Whit started in '94). The earlier bowls were '39, '47, and '64. Cool concept. The '47 Pineapple bowl wasn’t sanctioned as a bowl so counts as a regular season game though.
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Different projections indicate what they think will happen in the North:
Rose: Oregon (v Mich - seems pretty consensus Ohio St. will beat them and they will be the 10-2 rep to the Rose, replacing Ohio St.); Alamo: Utah (v Baylor); Las Vegas: ASU; Sun: WSU; Holiday: UCLA; LA: OSU
- means they see Oregon beating OSU and then Utah in the CCG. Rest plays out based on bowl preference
Rose: Utah (v Mich); Alamo: OSU; Las Vegas: ASU; Holiday: Oregon; Sun: UCLA; LA: WSU
- means they see OSU beating Oregon and WSU losing to UW with Utah winning the CCG and Alamo taking OSU (8-5 CCG runner-up) and Vegas taking 8-4 ASU over Oregon (9-3). I don’t see either happening. But I hope to see the Rose happening for us.
Go Utes! Just win baby.
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Michigan fans must hate the idea of seeing the Utes again, ever, anywhere.
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