What teams, if any, should the PAC10 poach?

(Assuming O/W stay, of course)

For recruiting purposes, San Diego State. After SDSU? Perhaps UNLV for the same reason. Univ of Houston, one of the metroplex schools (TCU/SMU), Okie State, and maybe Kansas.

Beyond those? I’m unsure.

My belief is some sort of merger of Big 12 and PAC. I’ve seen the talk of an “alliance” with the ACC, something that may have legal teeth because of a contract. I’m not sure that I see that one happening. IMO a merger between the Big 12 and PAC seems more plausible than most scenarios.

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None. No team gets the conference past $35-40mm per school media deal. Do the “loose association” arrangement with either ( or both) Big 12 / ACC. Let nature take its course.

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I think the ACC “loose association” is the best hope (though maybe not the most likely to be pulled off, or remain stable in the long run). If the resulting entity can partner with ESPN to get some sort of PACC-22 network on all of the local cable/satellite options throughout the new footprint, (similar to what the B1G has done with its network), that might be worth some real money (hopefully in addition to a streaming deal).

They will have to do something aggressive to keep W/OU, Clemson, UNC, FSU, Miami, etc from jumping ship, though, or the whole thing quickly unravels. If they pull this off though, and somehow keep Notre Dame involved, that could be a legitimate third rail to the SEC / B1G super conference love-fest.

I think teams will just naturally coalesce to their appropriate level. Other sports will find regional associations. There will not be conferences as we’ve come to know them. Teams will take payouts (across all sports to varying degrees) commensurate to their brand. Eyeballs, clothing, attendance, even meta characters in MMRPG’s. The whole economy of football is changing, rapidly and dramatically. You won’t recognize it based on todays paradigm.

That’s the wall I keep hitting. Seems like every team out there just splits the revenue pie further without growing it. I haven’t seen any hard numbers yet on how much TV $ an 18-21 team PAC/Big would be worth, but it’s probably out there.

“Loose association” sounds less threatening than “alliance”, which the B1G has now forever tainted.

Utah is just passing through this level. We will be at the top level in my lifetime, I think. That’s another 20-25 years. SEC. B1G. Won’t matter.

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I don’t like the travel, but Canzano has some interesting insight into a PAC+ACC scheduling agreement. The ACC isn’t going anywhere, everyone is locked in until 2036.

  • PAC media markets without LA are about 13 million households, where LA by itself is about 5.5 million.
  • A combined media footprint of PAC+ACC is 27.7 million homes vs 14 million in the B1G.
  • Former Oregon/Nebraska/Wazzu AD Bill Moos believes the LA schools may be looking at 7-8 win seasons in the B1G. That sounds about right to me, with loco travel.

Canzano: Pac-12 getting itself back out there after being burned (johncanzano.com)](Canzano: Pac-12 getting itself back out there after being burned)

Sounding (today) like the P10 teams are liking what Kliavkoff has been putting in front of them. I like this tone much better than the anxious, gotta-jump-now reactions from last week.

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I haven’t been able to find this, but does anyone know when the Big 12 grant of rights expires? I think that’s the problem with poaching - that Big 12 can get teams for free in 2024 whereas the Pac 12 has to buyout the exiting Big 12 team?

It looks like 2025, so that two years is the only advantage the Big 12 has over the Pac 12 with their 2023 agreement. Maybe the the Pac 12 signs a two year deal (I don’t see Oregon or Washington or Stanford signing anything longer that might result in a exit fee) Then some western conference emerges.

SDSU because they’re the best/only option to keep the conference footprint in SoCal. Also Texas is important, so I guess you go after one or more of the Texas B12 schools.

If looking for “peers” to keep the integrity of the Conference standards (Research, AAU, facilities), Iowa State and KU would fit the standards.

The question is would they be interested?

We have 2 more years of the PAC 12 as presently constituted. I would hope that a year from now there is a clear picture for what we are going to do. We should explore all options although I am not in favor of expanding with current G5 schools. I don’t think any of them bring $30 million in value, which I have read the PAC minus USC/UCLA is valued at per school.

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Your logic is right on. If we could convince Oregon and UDub to come with us to the Big 12 it would indeed be a powerhouse. Lubbock, Waco and Stillwater might prove too much for Cal sensibilities, but having a bigger footprint in the Dallas Ft Worth and Orlando markets is very tempting. I would think that inviting in San Diego State and getting to 20 ( The Big XX) would put such a conference back in the Southern California market.

I don’t think it’s as simple as go to the Big12 or not go. If we do end up going then it will be with an albatross around our necks in the form of highly restrictive GOR conditions. We have to balance that out against future opportunities, because we all know that the Big12 is definitely not our Forever Home.

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I’m much more confident that O & W are staying put. They’ll actually be a hard sell to the rest of the B1G because the other schools will have to subsidize them to the tune of $6M each every year, according to the valuation of their TV markets. Canzano thinks that the B1G might take O or W or Stanford if they agree to take a smaller payout, but is not likely to take one let alone two or three at this time.
It’s also apparent that a merger with the B12 doesn’t really do much for us besides adding stability. Stealing a G5 or P5 that isn’t in a big TV market doesn’t really make sense at this point.

We’re definitely hurt by U$CLA leaving, but it looks more likely that we’ll stay stable for now and might consider poaching some Texas teams to add the DFW market. It’s not inconceivable that at some point down the road when everyone is sick of what has happened in CFB, UCLA comes back, hat in hand, because they’re sick of being irrelevant in the B1G.

My hunch is that U$CLA are going to enjoy the money but hate their schedules and adding another 1-3 losses to their schedule in the B1G. Guess we’ll find out if increased exposure = program success. We know that for our program it has, but we excel at punching up, and they have a long record now of turning ribeye to dogfood.

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Who would be poachable? Tiny SMU?

My guess, and that is all it is, is TCU and Houston. But I have no clue what the GoR is with the Big 12. Could be small, could be huge, I haven’t a clue.

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Neither TCU nor Houston wants to come to the PAC. They are fine where they are. Go read Killerfrogs for TCU insights. The PAC just lost its luster because there just aren’t any suitable big western schools to make it attractive. Time to stick a fork in it and realize the future of tier 1 college football is east of us.

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So everyone is content where they are. I’m fine with that. Maybe we merge eventually, but I feel like Utah is going to be OK either way. Whitt’s eventual replacement being a stellar hire is even more critical now though.

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