Looking way too far ahead

Unfortunately, we do not control our own destiny with our loss to USC. Fivethirtyeight gives us a 22% chance of winning out, which should go up significantly if we beat Washington on Saturday. They only give USC a 6% chance of winning out, but I feel that is a little low. I am afraid that if they get past Oregon, there is a good chance they will also win the rest of their games.

If both we and USC win out, USC goes to the PAC12 Championship game, and our rose bowl hopes are gone. However, we would be 11-1, and my guess is that we would be ranked somewhere around 7th, maybe higher. Would Utah get into a NY6 bowl game, or would they be left out, and “stuck” with the Alamo bowl? The way the NY6 bowls are set up this year, I think it may be harder to get an at large bid than normal (the Fiesta and Peach, which have no conference tie ins, are the semifinal games this year, while the Orange and Sugar would like to maintain their traditional conference match ups). The only option may be the Cotton bowl vs the group of 5 team.

The PAC 12 really needs to have Utah and Oregon win out. If that happens it is likely that we get 1 team in the playoff and one in another NY6 bowl.