The Fighting Irish have even less control their fate than Cincinnati because Notre Dame does not play this week. Keep in mind that the CFP Rankings do not operate like a top 25 poll. If a team ahead of Notre Dame in this week’s rankings loses, that does not necessarily mean that team will fall behind the Irish. In fact, it is guaranteed that Georgia will not drop this far if it loses, and Alabama may not fall below ND with a loss, either, although it could. So, if Notre Dame wants to feel comfortable about finishing in the top four, it needs Michigan and/or Cincinnati to lose in addition to Oklahoma State. The two former teams are double-digit favorites. The Irish could possibly get there with one loss among those three (Cowboys already out) and Alabama taking a big loss.
You can try to apply analytics to it, but it still comes down to a decision by the 13 human beings on the committee. I’m not saying it will happen, but it is still within the realm.
Come to think of it, I did say it will happen…so I’m all in on the Irish!
I like having the PAC12 championship game on Friday night. It gets the spotlight that it wouldn’t get on Saturday and it would likely get pushed back to a 10 pm ET start if it were played today.
I believe this is the LA Bowl, happening a week or so from now vs. Pac-12 6th choice. Great venue but even as a G5, you’d think MWC could line up a bigger bowl as their flagship.